Many winter sports enthusiasts will remember the winter of 08/09 as being particularly snowy, whereas the previous winter of 09/10 was disappointingly snow-poor, especially in the otherwise snow-rich northern Alps. In the snowy winter of 2009, there was a series of avalanche accidents, particularly in the Bavarian Alps, with a high avalanche risk. In the winter of 2010, which was characterized by an extremely unstable snow cover and therefore a precarious avalanche situation, an exceptionally high number of ski tourers were affected by fatal avalanche accidents, whereas there were an enormous number of avalanches in the freeride and off-piste areas, although the majority of these had a mild outcome. With 155 avalanche fatalities, the "bad winter 09/10" was extremely victimized?
Freeriding and ski touring are booming - fatal avalanche accidents remain the same
Although more and more winter sports enthusiasts are venturing off-piste, the number of people killed by avalanches in the Alps is no longer increasing. This is despite the fact that the number of descents undertaken has increased immensely. But here lies the problem with any statement about the statistical danger of deep snow activities: all fatal avalanche accidents are recorded, but the number of descents undertaken (and accident-free) is largely unknown. If we knew, for example, that the number of freeriders quadrupled between the winter of 1999/2000 and 2009/2010 - which I think is a reasonable estimate - but that the number of freeriders who died in avalanches did not increase significantly in the same period, we could conclude that freeriding has become four times less risky. However, great caution is called for, as no one knows the so-called ascent or ascent figures.
Study by the SLF examines the risk of freeriding and off-piste skiing
Light into the darkness of all estimates and statements about the avalanche death risk of freeriding and off-piste skiing or ski touring has been shed for the first time by a study by the SLF. For the first time, a study by the SLF (Zweifel & Wäger 2008) has attempted to shed light on all the estimates and statements about the risk of avalanche death when freeriding and off-piste skiing.
The result surprised me: according to the study, the risk of death when ski touring is significantly lower than when freeriding.
In the following, I will briefly summarize the study and its results. The study is not new, but there is no more recent one with the same methodological standards. The experts Zweifel and Jäger from the Swiss Avalanche Research Institute SLF led a project in which the number of ski tours in the Rinerhorn variant and freeride area in Davos and a nearby ski touring area were recorded for three years. At the same time, the snow and avalanche conditions were documented in order to be able to make statements about the behavior of winter sports enthusiasts depending on the danger situation. The individual risk of death away from the slopes can be calculated from the combination of the ascent and accident data.
How does avalanche danger influence the behavior of winter sports enthusiasts?
Good powder snow conditions are almost always accompanied by an increase in avalanche danger. In the case of significant avalanche danger, level 3, only half as many ski tourers are out and about as in the case of moderate avalanche danger.
The situation is different for freeriders: more freeriders are out and about in the case of significant avalanche danger (level 3) than in the case of moderate, which can be explained by the usually poorer snow conditions.
Individual risk of death when touring and off-piste skiing
In the last 20 years, four people have died off-piste in the two study areas in the Rinerhorn freeride area, while three touring skiers have died in avalanches in the popular touring areas of Monstein and Tschuggen. The researchers calculated the individual risk of death for both winter sports disciplines on the basis of these figures and the number of ascents and descents recorded (which were then extrapolated to the entire period) and came to the conclusion that freeriding is more dangerous than ski touring: the risk for freeriding (in the Davos/Rinerhorn area) is 10 avalanche deaths per 100,000 off-piste descents and for ski touring 3 avalanche deaths per 100,000 ski tours. If you take into account that many freeriders undertake up to 10 off-piste descents per day, the risk increases significantly once again.
Weaknesses of the study
In their publication in the specialist magazine BergUndSteigen, the researchers point out that due to the low number of fatal avalanche accidents, each additional death significantly changes the statistics. The study period is also very short and the study area small, meaning that the results cannot be extrapolated and can only be used as a guide. Further such studies would be desirable for more reliable calculations and statements. According to the study, freeriding is the second most dangerous activity in the mountains after mountaineering, if extreme sports such as base jumping, speed flying etc. are disregarded.
Is freeriding really riskier than ski touring?
The approach of the study is very commendable, the implementation interesting, only the results appear questionable. The authors themselves point out the uncertainties of their results. I wonder what the results would look like in a large freeride area like the Arlberg region? Significantly more off-piste skiers die in avalanches here than on the Rinerhorn (Davos), but the number of skiers is also likely to be many times higher. The number of freeride descents in the Arlberg region is likely to be over 10,000 on good days. (Please note: all figures are my estimates!) If you apply the risk value of the Swiss researchers, this would mean that a fatal avalanche accident would have to occur in the Arlberg region on every 10th good freeride day. Of course, the same also applies to the other large freeride areas such as Verbier, Chamonix etc.
The problem of the unknown number of rides remains, but freeriders are better than their reputation
I don't want to talk down the approach of the two researchers or the whole project - quite the opposite! Nevertheless, the calculated risk value seems far too high to me. And I put forward the thesis that we freeriders are much better than our reputation and that our sport is less dangerous than is widely assumed, which is also supported by the non-increase in fatal avalanche accidents in the off-piste area.
Let's assume that there are 100 freeride areas in the Alps, such as Engelberg in Switzerland, where an average of 100,000 freeride descents are made each season. Even if there are not 100 large freeride areas à la Engelberg, most ski resorts do a lot of off-piste skiing, which is why the estimate seems to me to be valid. According to the risk formula calculated by Zweifel and Wäger, around 100 freeriders should die every year in the 100 freeride areas alone. In reality, however, no 50 freeriders die, which for me is an indication that the results of this study cannot be transferable and are therefore not suitable for making statements about the dangers of freeriding.
Whether the constant number of accidents can be attributed to the fact that winter sports enthusiasts are behaving more sensibly or whether a large part of the success is due to the increasingly better and more elaborate safety teams must remain unanswered at this point. And of course - as the two researchers also point out - we winter sports enthusiasts are not average freeriders or ski tourers and it is our own decision as to whether we ski the steep extreme slope first or stay in the less extreme area or close to the piste.
Lessons to be learned from the accidents at major hazard level
The accumulation of avalanche accidents at major hazard level in winter 2008/09 is alarming. Whether this is a trend or just a chain of sad individual cases or decisions is impossible to say without many years of statistical analysis. On the other hand, it is never too early to learn a personal lesson: as the competition for the best tracks is getting stronger and stronger, I don't put myself in a temptation that I may not be able to resist and simply stay at home when there is a high avalanche risk or a generally very treacherous avalanche situation!
Contrary to popular opinion, the number of fatal avalanche accidents has not risen despite the sharp increase in off-piste descents. And if we freeriders behave a little more sensibly or are more willing to do without, we can significantly reduce our risk of avalanche death even further.
The avalanche experts from the SLF in Davos also come to the conclusion in their calculations that the individual risk of avalanche death has statistically decreased slightly.
Further links
To the OEAV's risk magazine BergUndSteigenHere you can download the study on avalanche risk "Ten-high-minus-five"...
