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Snow height tip game 2020/2021

Better late than never!

by Anselm Köhler • 12/03/2020
Two snow measuring stations are waiting to be used in winter 2020/21. It's hard to imagine that the gravel trips above them were already inviting you to go powdering at the end of September (see CR #578 from 27.9.20)!

Two snow measuring stations are waiting to be used in winter 2020/21. It's hard to imagine that the gravel trips above them were already inviting you to go powdering at the end of September (see CR #578 from 27.9.20)!

Anselm Köhler

Two snow measuring stations are waiting to be used in winter 2020/21. It's hard to imagine that the gravel trips above them were already inviting you to go powdering at the end of September (see CR #578 from 27.9.20)!

Anselm Köhler
At some point, the prolonged late fall will turn into an early winter with short days and, this year, a light layer at higher altitudes. At some point, the bikes and climbing gear can be swapped for the skis from the summer camps. And then, it's time for the PowdeAalarm and the snow height game! For the fifth time in a row! And there are some great prizes again, more on that below.

After the prediction game is before the prediction game!

The winners of the prediction game from the last 2019/20 season are:

1st place: elfrido with a deviation of 3% wins a Scott airbag of your choice.

2nd place: magic spirit with a deviation of 5.4% wins a pair of Scott Pole Proguide C SRS poles.

3rd place: chevchelios with a deviation of 6.8% wins a Scott Shield Goggle.

Congratulations and have fun with your winnings!!!

The strong competition is noticeable in the results. Many of the players have small deviations. As a tip for new luck: betting frequently increases the chance of good odds. The big snowfalls in particular make it possible to achieve small percentage deviations... (If you want to see the complete results table, please contact anselm(at)PowderGuide.com)

Snow height prediction game: What's it about?

Whenever a "significant" storm brings a decent amount of fresh snow to the Alps, it's well known that Ullr and his oracle give an estimate of the expected new snow totals as PowderAlert. In a PA, not only the amount but also a rough core zone is mentioned. The prediction game is held at a measuring station in the core zone: you predict the amount of fresh snow and then compare who was closest to the actual amount. The measuring station is named for each PA, as well as the initial snow depth, the period over which the prediction is made and the deadline for submitting a prediction. Whoever makes the best predictions throughout the season wins the prediction game, of course...

Final result of the 2019/2020 season: The final odds of the participants are shown in red. The blue bars are the five best betting results that count towards the final odds.

Final result of the 2019/2020 season: The final odds of the participants are shown in red. The blue bars are the five best betting results that count towards the final odds.

Anselm Köhler

Final result of the 2019/2020 season: The final odds of the participants are shown in red. The blue bars are the five best betting results that count towards the final odds.

Anselm Köhler

How much snow is the new snow total

The new snow total in centimetres is the number we are talking about. We define it as the maximum snow depth minus the initial snow depth - the image above illustrates this graphically. In this example, the forecast period is 48 hours with an initial snow depth of 75 cm. During these two days it most probably snowed most of the time. In the last few hours it snowed less or not at all, so that the snow cover settled and compacted. The maximum snow depth was 128cm. This results in the following new snow total: 128-75=53cm.

Note: Even if new snow amounts are sometimes displayed at weather stations, our own definition applies to the prediction game. Here in the graphic, the sum of the red bars would be an unrealistic 150cm in the prediction period...

Quota as a measure of deviation

The quota Q is defined as the deviation between the predicted (HN_t) and measured amount of fresh snow (HN_m):

Q = | HN_t - HN_m | / HN_m ,

i.e. the amount of the difference between prediction and measurement, normalized to the measurement. This results in the limit values Q = 0 for accurately guessed to the centimeter, Q = 1 for not guessed at all (HN_t = 0), and Q > 1 for completely off. For the deviation percentages, the odds are multiplied by 100.

Don't be put off by the odds formula. From this season onwards, every PowderAlert will be accompanied by the interim results of the prediction game so that you always know where you stand and who the toughest competitor is...

And how do I win now?

Only the five best tips count. This means that the overall winner at the end of the season is the one with the lowest average of the best five odds. In plain language, this means that you don't have to play every tip and can also enter the betting game later in the year, because only five count anyway. As this winter will of course be awesome, there will be more than 15 PowderAlerts and prediction games!

Pictorial explanation of our new snow total from the difference between the highest snow depth and the initial snow depth within the forecast period.

Pictorial explanation of our new snow total based on the difference between the highest snow depth and the initial snow depth within the forecast period.

Anselm Köhler

Pictorial explanation of our new snow total based on the difference between the highest snow depth and the initial snow depth within the forecast period.

Anselm Köhler

How do I play along

To play along, all you have to do is:

1) read the PowderAlert regularly so as not to miss the tips

2) follow the link to the forum there

3) log in to the forum

4) submit a tip, i.e. add your predicted snow total to the bottom of the prediction game post.

New this season: You can also leave your tip directly under the PowderAlert as a comment.

To make sure you always remember in time, there is an e-mail notification for every new prediction game. Simply anselm(at)powderguide.com!

And what's there to win?

This time there will be no more daily prizes, because that never worked out well anyway... Instead, useful, beautiful, strange and what-have-you prizes will be raffled off among all participants at the end - regardless of the actual results.

The main prizes have already been decided and will once again be provided by PG partner Scott.

1st place: a pair of Scott Ski Superguide Freetour. Versatile freetourer with 104mm waist width and moderate tip rocker. Light enough for long ascents with very solid downhill performance!

2nd place: a pair of Scott Proguide C SRS ski poles: Two-piece, very light telescopic poles with an extra-long grip for better grip on traverses.

3rd place: a Scott Shield goggle. The Shield is the simple, stylish classic in Scott's ski goggle lineup and offers the best vision thanks to its anti-fog coating.

Have fun with the 2020/2021 snow tip game! Ullr is keeping its fingers crossed!

Two snow measuring stations are waiting to be used in winter 2020/21. It's hard to imagine that the gravel trips above them were already inviting you to go powdering at the end of September (see CR #578 from 27.9.20)!

Two snow measuring stations are waiting to be used in winter 2020/21. It's hard to imagine that the gravel trips above them were already inviting you to go powdering at the end of September (see CR #578 from 27.9.20)!

Anselm Köhler

Two snow measuring stations are waiting to be used in winter 2020/21. It's hard to imagine that the gravel trips above them were already inviting you to go powdering at the end of September (see CR #578 from 27.9.20)!

Anselm Köhler

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