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PowderAlert 3 2024/25 | ChristmasWOWweather!

All aboard the Hype Train, because instead of Christmas thaw and rain weather there's ChristmasWOWweather!

by Lars Oelmann 12/20/2024
The time has come. The Oracle says "all systems go", squeezes into the skintight clothing of an attractive pit crew member, as found in motor racing, and waves the green flag, officially heralding the start of the Christmas race.

All aboard the hype train, because in contrast to the classic Christmas thaw (Weihnachtstauwetter, which is a so called “singularity” because it’s so common here) that has often befallen us in recent years, Ullr finally seems to want to step on the gas and give us real powder, right down to the valleys. After that, it will probably be dry and warmer, so perfect for the average skier and, thanks to the low sun, a perfectly usable holiday season for us too. Just in time for the winter solstice, Ullr finds his old form to save the winter.

However, after the alarm, sharks are probably no longer the main problem, but rather the really bad snowpack that the long wait for powder has given us. But more on that later.

Alert period and areas

The Alert covers the entire northern Alpine arc from northern France to the Rax, but the core with the biggest dump extends from the Arlberg to France and northern Valais.

The Alert will continue in the west until Tuesday and in the eastern Alps until Tuesday evening. Then the high will move in.

Wind

It's pushing and storming right up to the main ridge and before that it's blowing really stormy from the west, so there are big deposits on top of a nasty layer of old snow. It's not yet clear whether it will even push over the main ridge. The foothills of the Alps will probably be blown away by the wind, but it should still work in the Nordstau areas.

Snow line

The snow line will rise slowly on Saturday night and will be between 1200 and 1600 metres in the west on Sunday, and lower in the inner Alps, e.g. in Valais or Graubünden, if there is heavy precipitation. In the east it will be between 900 and 1300 metres. On Sunday afternoon, however, it will be virtually in the lowest valleys everywhere again, so that large amounts are also likely above 800 metres.

Full amounts from approx. 1700m in the French Prealps and 1100m in the inner Alps in the east. So POWDER for almost everyone, everywhere on the Christmas trees.

Quantities

From the Rax to Tyrol there are around 50-70cm and in Stau areas like the Nordkette or the Salzkammergut a little more, so around 80-90cm is possible. I don't see that metre here.

From the Arlberg to France, 80-110cm is widespread, in Stau areas around 100-130cm and in the core of the core from northern Valais via central Switzerland to the Arlberg I don't want to rule out 150cm. So after the dump: No more sharks!

But with almost three days of snowfall, it will settle well and snowpack growth should be a maximum of 2/3 to ¾ of that. So we should rarely see more than 100cm of snow cover increase.

Where should I go?

In the centre of the core, i.e. from the northern Valais to the Arlberg and where there was some base.

Sunday will be difficult, as it will probably only start to snow in the second half of the night, but it'll really start to really, really dump during the day. The oracle will also try it somewhere in Switzerland where there was some base. Forest? Maybe, if it's light enough. Alpine meadows? Full throttle. Below the tree line, the old snow problem shouldn't be so serious due to the warmth and above that it's whiteout anyway.

It will continue to snow heavily on Monday and forests in the centre, where no one has been through yet, should work, in the east it's probably still alpine meadows, but you can judge that better on site. It'll clear up in the west on Tuesday, but you'll have to wait until Wednesday in the east. The Arlberg is in between and it could clear up Tuesday afternoon. However, as this is still quite far into the crystal ball, the oracle accepts no liability.

The SLF is already warning about the old snow cover, so please take it slow and let it settle. Tuesday and Wednesday look very accident-prone. There was not much offpiste traffic in the ski area yet either, as everything has been sharky so far, so shift down a gear there too.

Medium term

Warmer, but as simulated yesterday and before, probably not tropical. So at the end of December it will probably stay good and dangerous on the north side for longer. Whether anything will happen in the new year is completely up in the air.

Powder to the people!

Your oracle

And "pour one for the oracle", who will miss this dump in the northern German lowlands and will desperately try to get his powder fix somewhere on Sunday.

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