After the beginning of October, the time has finally come again. Snow is falling. The weather situation has changed and instead of dry and southern flavors, we are now getting our fresh, juicy air masses from the west to northwest. After the beginning of October, the time has finally come again. Snow is falling.
This inflow is relatively solid and quite reliable. The amounts should be in the range of 40-70 cm in the accumulation areas by Tuesday, with areas such as the western Valais and France also having the potential for "surprise accumulation centimetres" in the range of an additional 20-30 cm. All other areas will have to make do with 20-40 cm, although east of the Arlberg there could also be "nasty", i.e. negative, surprise centimetres, as the current can rush past completely and only 10-20 cm could remain. Let's hope for the best.
Now comes the crux of the matter, because from Wednesday the current will change and it will become warmer and sunnier again over the Alps. Some models will then allow the second wave to arrive from Thursday, while others will not, but more on that on Wednesday.
The good news is that something is happening. The bad news is that the very active westerly flow makes it quite unlikely that the current will ever tilt onto a meridional (i.e. north-south) axis, as the cold air off Canada keeps generating new lows that don't really suit us. At worst, this will stimulate a new stable European high. So Ullr sacrifice your old skis so that I can actually report on the second wave on Wednesday.
Until then, enjoy looking at the mountains and webcams again.
Powder to the people!
Text: Lars Oelmann