Mediterranean low!!! Off to the south side of the Alps and powder your noses. After last week's rather indifferent flurries caused excitement and were most likely to bring joy to East Tyrol and Italy, the next low will bring much more predictable snowfall to France, Italy/Slovenia and the Upper Engadine.
The example of the SLF on the Schilthorn, where 40 cm fell in 7 hours, while only 5 cm fell 10 km away, shows how strange the situation was. Very localized effects, which would have partly reached the alarm level, but were not foreseeable and would have disappointed 95% of all readers. So forgive me, because an oracle is only as good as its crystal ball ;). Since the alternator of the oracle's flying carpet gave up the ghost today, the alarm is sounding now and not in the evening. So what's happening? The low pressure system that is currently forming over Spain and, incidentally, is again covering the Pyrenees like hell, is moving northwards and creating a south-westerly flow that will bring fresh snow first from France and then from Ticino eastwards on the southern slopes of the Alps to Slovenia.
How much of Ullr's magic dust that the southern slopes have had to wait so long for?
In France from the Maritime Alps to Isere around 20-50 cm, 10-30 cm depending on the accumulation further north, although I could also imagine a surprise in parts of the Aosta Valley. In Ticino and to the west, only 10-30 cm will probably accumulate on the southern slope due to the shading of the Western Alps. From the Rhine forest/eastern Ticino to the Upper Engadine and the neighboring regions of Italy south of the border, the amounts will increase and should reach 30-60 cm by Tuesday. Then - as things stand today (19.1.13) - there will be a focus in the Dolomites/Trentino etc., where 60-100 cm could fall, but as the strength and core fluctuated greatly in the last model runs, I say that there is a risk that it could only be 40-60 cm. This 40-60 zone will then continue towards Slovenia. Surprises on the upper side are possible in the Italian-Slovenian border area and in the Upper Engadine and depend on how strong the Mediterranean low becomes and where exactly it wants to go. This could mean up to 20 cm extra in these areas (i.e. 50-80 instead of 30-60 cm). In parts of Tyrol, it is expected to spill over the main Alpine ridge to the north and bring between 20-40 cm, otherwise significantly less, although it could also drop 10-20 cm anywhere in the north. However, this information is purely a lottery and the oracle does not provide any guarantee. The snow line will briefly rise to over 1500-1700 m in the west and south in Switzerland and France in the foothills of the Alps, but will remain significantly lower in the inner Alps. Cold air should be able to persist on the southern slopes of the Alps and in Aosta, so that everything should remain in the green zone from 800-1100 m there. From Monday onwards, however, it will drop to powdery regions below 1000 m everywhere. It will remain cool in the medium term, but further distributions from Ullr's "Aktion Freeskier" lottery will be rather rare until next weekend. What will happen then is unclear, but let's hope that the Christmas sauna reloaded doesn't happen. Lea would certainly report on it when the time comes. So, I hope your weekend is good and you can make the most of next week. Powder to the People!Your Oracle
