It's time for an alarm, because there's fresh snow from the west to north-west again. And the magic meter is likely to be broken again by Sunday. Although the chances of this are quite good in the congested areas from Glarnerland to Arlberg, and even very likely in the far east, i.e. Salzburg to the Dachstein.
But one thing at a time. Where is the permanent winter and the 2 m predicted by the models and their forecasters? They're not coming! Because as our weather expert Lea has already pointed out: the westerly flow is lively and therefore the flow is not suitable for a really thick northerly flow. (Not that we wouldn't have been happy with 1 m in 3 days in other winters, but this winter it's already an everyday occurrence).
First wave
Let's move on to the first wave, whose warm area is already caressing the Alps, but where the precipitation will thankfully only really get going with the cold front tonight until Saturday. While the snow line is still at around 1500 m at the moment, it will drop to below 1000 m during the night, which is relevant for freeriders, and will remain there until Saturday morning, when it may rise again to 1300-1600 m as the weather moderates again. We'll be lucky here too, as the moderation won't be so wet that the snow can hold up quite well until it cools down further on Sunday. However, you should expect it to become quite heavy below 1400 m on Saturday.
Now for the amounts: By Saturday morning, I expect 35-80 cm of snow from the Isère to the Dachstein, so once again across the entire northern Alpine arc. Depending on the westerly accumulation and windward component. The snowfall should reach as far as the main ridge again due to the high-altitude current, but as the storm seems to be weaker on the wind side this time, the largest amounts should actually be found in the classic west/northwest accumulations on the northern slopes. There are actually no uncertainties downwards, as the whole thing looks quite solid and there should be an additional 10-20 cm upwards. But I would be very surprised if the meter gets full at all on Saturday.
It's very uncertain whether there will be short gaps of cloud in the Alps on Saturday, but it's not impossible. So I would recommend areas with a high tree line, because of the warming, with potential upwards.
Second wave
The second part on Sunday is already much more uncertain, but with the cooling and the snow line dropping to 1000 m and below Sunday night, the east in particular should get another boost. While Switzerland will probably only get a maximum of 15-30 cm from west to east by Sunday evening, it could be 20-40 cm towards the Arlberg and possibly 50 cm in the east towards the Dachstein. However, as these marginal depth developments are still very uncertain, I'm predicting a disappointment potential of 10-20 cm. The wind and the rollercoaster snowfall limit are the only downer standing in the way of a new powder weekend.
Outlook
The medium term is so uncertain that I won't write anything until Sunday at the earliest if new snow should come. So enjoy the 5th (fifth!!!) alarm weekend with 1 m of fresh snow, take care of yourselves and remember "Ullr loves you!"
Powder to the people !
Text: Lars Oelmann