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PowderAlert 13 2017/18 | The wild 13

Happy new powder year!

by Lars Oelmann • 12/31/2017
After the rain is before the rain at Ullr's rollercoaster.

After the rain is before the rain at Ullr's rollercoaster

LH
LR

After the rain is before the rain at Ullr's rollercoaster

LH
LR
As announced, the time has come. We're in the middle of the rollercoaster and heading for the megaloop. The Ullr is sending squadron after squadron of damp, mild and cool air from the west towards the Alps and it's rattling around. There is a ray of hope in terms of the snow line, because this time it should look better in the Alps than last time. So maybe less puking and more fun on our wild ride!

Time period and areas

This alert is valid until Thursday evening or Friday morning in the east of the alert area. Which brings us to the area: it extends from the Hautes Alpes in France to the Arlberg, i.e. essentially everything that is covered in the west, with the core lying from northern Valais to the Hautes Alpes.

East of the Arlberg, in the colder north-westerly phases, you can also scrape along the 30 cm alarm in congested areas, but overall it's less worthwhile there.

Wind

As we enter the Ullr megalooping with the rollercoaster, our ride is extremely fast. It storms and storms and storms. But nobody wants to be above the tree line anyway with a probable alert level 4-5. I'm even pretty sure that some areas will remain closed. It might calm down a bit towards Friday.

After all, everything is coming back up to the main ridge, or beyond and all the way into Valais. Last time, Zermatt had almost the most fresh snow (and that from the west!).

After the rain is before the rain at Ullr's rollercoaster.

After the rain is before the rain at Ullr's rollercoaster

LH
LR

After the rain is before the rain at Ullr's rollercoaster

LH
LR

Snowfall limit

First of all, some self-praise: last time I actually saw the lower limit within the Alps in France. Nobody else! But before I get megalomaniac: that was just luck, because it rained high up in Valais and Aosta.

This time it will be a bit better, because it won't be quite as warm, so you can say with some certainty that it could stay snowy in Valais, in France e.g. in Pelvoux and possibly also in the Aosta Valley from 1100-1500m. Otherwise, the limit fluctuates between 600m and 2000m, whereby most of the snow in the north should come from 1800m upwards. What speaks for this are the only short warm spells and that it will probably stay at 0° at the pass level, so that the warmth will have a harder time in the inner Alps.

The amounts

Will hardly be possible to measure properly because of the hurricane above, but from 2000m the following amounts will come until Thu/Fri night, in the core until Thu evening.

From the Arlberg to the Valais 60-100cm, more to the west than to the east. Little potential for surprises as it snows for a long time and gets warm again and again so that it settles massively. Positive: this will be a great base situation (not that we don't already have that) due to the high density. In the core it will be 100-150cm of snow.

Somewhere in France or in the westernmost lower Valais it could be up to 180cm or 2m. The snowpack growth should be around 60-80% of these totals, as it snows here over three days and gets quite warm in between. So I don't think there will be 2m more snow cover than before, except in gullies and hollows. With the strong current, however, it can accumulate massively in the west, so what do I know...

Fresh snow forecast for the next 2 days

New snow forecast for the next 2 days

PG Wetterservice

New snow forecast for the next 2 days

PG Wetterservice

Where should I go?

The whole thing is tricky. But since it's not going to clear up until Friday anyway, the magic word is high trees in the west. First of all, tomorrow (January 2) will be quite nice there with cold powder, especially in France and the lower Valais. Where there is the most fresh snow, you can also get into lower trees.

Because remember: under the fresh snow, everything is frozen hard below 2000-2200m. Then comes the snowfall hammer with strongly fluctuating borders and you should look for a spot with high or very inner alpine trees in Valais or France, because in the Aosta Valley I see it more 50/50 that it will stay there with snow below 1600m. The spot can also be on the main ridge.

What's more interesting is what the northern Alps should do, because January 3 is a total failure in the trees there, but from the afternoon it snows again down to far below and only gets warm again in the east in the course of January 4. On Friday and Saturday, it'll be very warm in the north, but it should break up, so you can relax up there.

Mid-term

It'll be warm in the north at the weekend and there'll probably be an alarm in the south. After that it's all open, but it looks like the worst of the warmth will be over by then. Fingers crossed and praise Ullr that it stays lower with snow this time (and in the future).

Powder to the People!

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