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PowderAlert 17 2015/16 | A last hurrah?

It's snowing. One last time?

by Lars Oelmann 04/15/2016
It's mid-April and winter is slowly saying goodbye. The snow line creeps southwards into the high Alps and we study the weather maps hopefully to see if powder is on the way. The disciples of Ullr can actually saddle up their poles once again and go hunting.

The time has come: Ullr is sending us some more fresh snow until Monday. Unfortunately, it probably won't get cold fast enough, so the full amounts are again only expected above 2200 to 2400 meters. This alert will last until Monday morning.

Areas

Alert amounts may occur from Northern France to Tyrol and in the Southern Alps from Monte Rosa to the Dolomites, with the core likely to be in the Southern Alps from Monte Rosa to Engadin / Adamello. You ask yourselves: Huh? How can it snow in the northern AND southern Alps without a counterflow system? It's because the air mass boundary is practically moving over the Alps.

The snow line

will be a problem: while it's already starting to snow in the core area in the south today, it will still be very high and snow will probably only fall from 2000 to 2200m. In the north, it will only flake around reluctantly. On Sunday, the whole thing will intensify in the north with the incoming cold air, but will remain quite high in the south. While the snow line in the north will drop to 1300 to 1700 m tomorrow and even to 1000 m or lower on Monday night, it will probably remain quite high in the south and only drop to 1700 to 2000 m. Unfortunately, the precipitation will also stop quite soon with the cold air, so that even in the north below 1800 m, there will probably only be a chance of snow.

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The amounts

From Northern France to Tirol and from Monte Rosa to Slovenia, 20 to 40 cm of snow could fall by Monday. However, I would only expect these amounts above 2000 m in the north and above 2400 m in the south. In the core along the main Swiss Alpine ridge and from Monte Rosa/Ticino to the Engadin/Adamello, 50-80 cm of snow may fall. Due to the warmth, I don't see much more, although the precipitation amounts in winter would also give more.

Where to go?

At the weekend, unfortunately, there are no trees in the core that should be high enough. On Monday, I would head high up in the south or hope for enough in the north.
You probably have the best chances on the main ridge of the Swiss Alps if you hope that the cold air comes in far enough and you still benefit from the core amounts.

The outlook

It doesn't look all that summery after the next warm spell, but it's still very uncertain whether the new cold air will really arrive from 23 April, even if the models give the impression that it's already certain. However, I would tend to say that there's a good chance that there won't be an April summer this year and that you can still go on cool spring ski tours, something that only people who grew up without the internet remember.

Was this the last alarm here?
Hopefully not!

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Your oracle

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