Snow line
As always with südstau, the snow line is the crux of the matter. The general rule for the end of March is: surprisingly suitable for powder. And as always, this is especially true in the sheltered west of the alert area. Today the snowfall will start at 1500-1900m and the snow line will then gradually drop, especially in the west. In the east of the alert area, it may stay this high for longer.
The good news for the western core zone: with the intensification tomorrow evening, it will drop to 1200-1500m and then most of the precipitation will fall as powder until Saturday. In the core it may snow down to 1000m in the west. Especially in the Gotthard area and the areas of Switzerland on the main ridge, it will drop quickly and then change seamlessly into a northern bonus or even a new northern alert. The amounts are not yet clear.
The full amounts are generally only above 1600-2000m from west to east.
The amounts
It is enough for 30-40cm of fresh snow on the entire southern slope of the Alps. In the Maritime Alps and in southwest France probably not quite enough. From the 30-40cm, it will then quickly go up in the core zones. As the core areas are topographically quite small-scale, 20 km can make a difference.
In the western core zone, 40-70cm is widespread and from Ticino to the Simplon probably 60-90cm, although the meter can easily fall in a congested area.
In the core in the east, it can be even wilder, or even significantly less. In general, the models expect at least 60-80cm of fresh snow there (above 1800-2000m! Remember, it rains higher there). Some models also skip this and spit out up to double the amount, i.e. 110-160cm. As I've already experienced both, much more and less than expected, this winter, I have to decide who is right. Due to the large-scale flow, I say that there could well be a meter, but I am sceptical about the maximum assumption of 120cm.
