Dear disciples of Ullr,The time has finally come! The saga continues. I hope George Lucas forgives my entry and doesn't sue me. And no, I can't tell you if you can see Luke Skywalker's hand reaching for R2D2 in the trailer for "Star Wars - The Force Awakens", but I can tell you where it's snowing. That's what I'm here for and what we've all been waiting for. It's alarm number one and also the first time that a blanket of snow has formed that will remain throughout the winter, as there are only remnants of the October snow in the high mountains or on the north side above 2500 meters. Which quickly leads us to the first problem: because the November summer in combination with heavy snowfall will probably bring with it the sliding snow issue familiar from the last few winters. So, where is it snowing? The core will be in France and western Valais thanks to the westerly and north-westerly congestion and a westerly position of the low, but the areas from the Bernese Oberland to the Arlberg will probably also receive a skiable base. In the other areas, there will probably be too little (in the east) or nothing (in the south). Problem number two: The snow line. Because even if it will snow consistently above around 2100 m (northern Alps)-2400 m (France), we have an early season problem because some of the precipitation will come in with the cold front and will fall as rain below these altitudes. As the total amounts are of no use to us this high up, because they fall on open crevasses and huge boulders and you want to know whether you can go on a tour somewhere on the mountain pasture on Sunday, there are two amounts today. Due to the wind, I don't think there will be a valley anywhere where the totals will fall further down.
The totals from 2500 m upwards
There's a third problem here: The precipitation will fall with a strong front and the models like to overestimate this in the mountains, so I'm being quite conservative, although some models see quite a lot of precipitation. However, due to its intensity, the whole thing will reach the main ridge almost unchecked, so the full amounts can be expected here.
In western Valais and France, there will probably be 70-90 cm of snow cover throughout on Sunday, as the whole thing will pack down properly and form a good base. It may even crack the magic meter in one or two of the accumulation holes, but that will be difficult as the water content is quite high and there won't be much more in the fluffy phase from Saturday afternoon. From the Bernese Alps to the Arlberg, 40-70 cm should also be possible further up. Further east in the northern Alps I see 20-50 cm at the very top with the smaller values in the east. I don't think it will be enough for the Alps here, but maybe Ullr will prove me wrong.
The amounts from 1200-1800 m on the alp
Now we get to the crux of the matter, because this is where it gets tricky and since I'm not a Jedi, I can't see the future very clearly. Depending on how quickly it cools down and how closed the valley is, more or less will reach the bottom. In general, I would assume that it will reach the bottom by midnight tonight and that almost half of it will have fallen by then. So in the west on the meadows 35-50 cm, possibly with a possible 10 cm bonus in lucky locations in the inner Alpine Valais. From the Bernese Oberland to the Arlberg 25-40 cm, more would really surprise me. In the other areas rather too little to go on a tour.
When should I leave? Sunday you should leave, Yoda would say. Or later if you want to go higher. If you want to play roulette as early as Saturday lunchtime, you really should have too much time and rock skis or live locally, because poor visibility and thin snow cover require a good dose of madness and/or local knowledge. Where should I go? For the biggest crowds, to western Wallis or northern France and make the alpine meadows there unsafe, because nothing is open yet, as even the early openers Zinal and Verbier have postponed their season openings. For everyone from Felix Austria, I would keep an eye on the relevant meadow slopes in Vorarlberg or the Arlberg. In the medium term, the models are still far apart and from next week Wednesday, anything from more snow to boring weather can happen, but at least summer is finally over at the end of November. Here's hoping for the ice planet Hoth this winter! It's good to be back. Powder to the people!Your Oracle