Most people are rubbing their eyes in amazement, because no sooner has the northern congestion melted away than the next dump comes. And this time Ullr's disciples have a little dejavue, because that's how it looked all the time in 13/14, right? Catastrophic amounts of snow in the south and warm foehn in the north [Editor's note: Attention! The photo is from last winter 13/14 from the south, which was as snowy then as it is now] And that's exactly what's coming! A mega dump that has washed its hands, but unfortunately at a higher level than last winter, as warmer air can be found in the south at the beginning of November, which the Western European low is shoveling towards the Alps. Due to the warmer air, however, the amounts are significantly higher than last year, so that many Alpine valleys will probably report landfall and literally drown in the rain that will fall below 2000 m. However, the weather services are already warning of these possible catastrophic side effects. We should only be concerned about the white and solid form of precipitation. And gigantic amounts of it are coming from the Maritime Alps via the Monte Rosa region and the Simplon to Ticino. In the next 48 to 60 hours, between 150 and 250 cm of snow, possibly up to 3 m, will fall in wind-protected accumulations! Some models go beyond that, but with the settling and existing orographic overestimation of the local models, I doubt that we will get beyond 3 meters. In the neighboring areas of the southwestern Alps and the main ridge, 80 to 120 cm are possible and from the Engadine to Slovenia in the southern Alps about 60 to 80 cm. This decreases rapidly towards the north. And now let's stop being cautious: ACH DU MEINE FRESSE: 3-VERDAMMTE-METER! That's enough in two days too.
The only fly in the ointment, apart from the flooding and avalanche risk, of course, in Ullr's apocalyptic vision of the south is the snow line and/or the glop line, because during the snowfall it will probably stay in the trees with rain or glop, although I don't want to rule out a drop in the snow line to below 1500 m with such precipitation rates. However, this will only happen in enclosed valleys in the main precipitation areas from Monte Rosa to Ticino. Otherwise, they will remain between 1700 m in the core and 2300 m in the warm peripheral areas with less precipitation. If it then breaks up from Thursday, you should head for the glaciers, because with a zero degree limit during the precipitation of 2000-2500 m, you will only be on the safe side from 2200-2500, below that it will be more likely to remain on bottomless slush swamps. In the medium term, the high over Russia and the lows in the west are quite tough and the models will be spitting out a few possible identical weather situations from the weekend onwards, whether they will be colder, just as warm or even warmer and should also bring doomsday amounts again, more on that in a known place. My tip: Go to the southern glaciers of the Western Alps on Friday or at the weekend, or head for a high pass that will hopefully be open again. It won't open before then and the trees are 99% certain not to be worth it. In the Eastern Alps there's less anyway and the weather there also tends to be mixed. Powder (or is it glop?) to the people!
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