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WeatherBlog 10 2021/22 | Sun as far as the eye can see

Nice touring weather, but no snow in sight for now

by Lea Hartl 01/12/2022
The high pressure weather continues to accompany us. It will remain very sunny up to and including the weekend. Temperatures will rise and it will be a lot milder again, especially at higher altitudes. High fog will hang in many valleys and it will be much colder than in the mountains thanks to inversions. Weather change with a chance of fresh snow next week.

Current situation and outlook

Crucial for our weather at the moment is an area of high pressure centered off the French Atlantic coast. The high pressure system is still somewhat tilted and oblique in the atmospheric landscape and stretches from France to Scandinavia. On the eastern flank of the high, cold air can flow from the east towards the Alps, giving us sunny but relatively cold weather (left map in the picture below). This will change over the next few days. The "high pressure arm" towards Scandinavia will be virtually overrun by the polar jet and the high will slide a little to the north-east (middle map). The cold air will then leave and it will become noticeably warmer at altitude. A few more "foot-cold" inversion days with plenty of sunshine in the mountains are on the cards.

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Mid-range forecast

The high will slowly weaken towards the weekend, but the sunny weather character will remain for the time being. The uncertainties in the forecast will increase significantly from around Sunday. A winter-friendly scenario in the GFS glass globe suggests that the current fairly zonal flow over the Atlantic will become very wavy, with low pressure developing in north-eastern Canada and a wedge extending far to the north in the area of Greenland (right-hand map in the image above. Caution: uncertain!). The signs would therefore be good for an outbreak of cold air over Central Europe. There would also be fresh snow, especially on the northern side of the Alps as things stand. The whole thing is still on shaky ground and the ECMWF model has a somewhat less snow-friendly view of things. However, there are also precipitation signals in the forecast next week and in any case, the weather will become more varied again. Until then, we recommend enjoying the view somewhere above the fog. Nevertheless, the WeatherBlog would like to see a northerly flow soon, preferably of course with a subsequent development of low pressure in the Mediterranean so that everyone can enjoy equal amounts of powder.

Drought and forest fire danger

The south definitely needs more snow! In the Swiss natural hazard map, you have to look closely at the moment to find out where the orange coloring indicates a significant avalanche risk and where there is a significant risk of forest fires. Especially on the southern side of the Alps, some areas are very dry and where there is no snow, fires can quickly break out in winter. Dry grass that has died in the fall makes good tinder. Fires tend to occur most frequently 1) in summer, when the soil and vegetation dry out during periods of dry heat, and 2) in the spring months. If the snow has already melted on southern slopes, for example, but the fresh vegetation is not yet there, the dry, old grass may only need a spark to become a problem.

Fires or the risk of forest fires in the winter months are generally not unusual, but of course you could still be of the opinion that there should be enough snow in Ticino in January so that you don't have to think about it... The Tyrolean local press recently reported that fire departments in East Tyrol are also preparing for forest fires. Here, too, it is dry and due to forest damage caused by avalanches and storms in recent years, there is a lot of dead wood in places, which makes firefighting more difficult.

So it's clearly time for Ullr or Frau Holle to get active again!

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This article has been automatically translated by DeepL with subsequent editing. If you notice any spelling or grammatical errors or if the translation has lost its meaning, please write an e-mail to the editors.

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