WeatherBlog 17 2020/21 | April prospects, exciting medium-term forecast

Current situation and outlook

The Alps are increasingly caught up in a strong westerly current and the frontal zone is approaching. Today, Wednesday, it will become increasingly cloudy in the north as the day progresses, although it will remain uncomfortably windy and cool in places. Thursday will be somewhat milder, still with clouds and some sun here and there, until a cold front moves across the Alps from W to E in the afternoon. In the northern western Alps, this is likely to bring quite a bit of fresh snow by Friday. We're curious to see whether the oracle might even have something to say about this! Further east, it will also snow a little, but much less. It will remain more or less dry in the south.

WeatherBlogs

presented by

500hPa geopotential and ground pressure, Friday, March 12 Strong westerly flow with embedded disturbances and repeated sunny spells. — 500hPa geopotential and ground pressure, Friday, 12.3. strong westerly flow with embedded disturbances and repeated sunny spells
.

meteociel.fr

Medium-term

First of all, we will remain in the stormy westerly flow, which will also bring changeable, windy weather at the weekend, with showers and sunshine alternating time and again - it is difficult to predict exactly which of these options will occur when, as they follow each other so quickly. The possible development from Sunday will be interesting - the cold front tomorrow will be a nice winter greeting, the change in the general weather situation as currently seen in the models from Sun would be a substantial return of winter! It looks like the Azores High will increasingly bulge to the north, which means that the westerly flow will no longer reach us directly but will be deflected to the north before rushing back towards the Alps as a northerly flow on the other side of the wave. If this happens, the coming week will be cold and snowy in the north and the PowderAlert is pre-programmed. Of course, there is still no guarantee, but we can hope!

The future of snow in Austria

The long-term future of snow, on the other hand, is not so bright. In a study by ZAMG and other Austrian research institutions, a new data set has been created that shows in more detail than before how the snow situation in Austria has changed since 1961. The results are predictably sobering. Averaged over all altitudes and the area of the country, the duration of snow cover has decreased by 40 days since the beginning of the 1960s - so on average there is more than a month less snow than before. The decrease is greater at low altitudes and less pronounced at high altitudes.

Bright winter weather last weekend. — Bright winter weather last weekend
.

LH

Based on model data on climate development, the study also takes a look into the future. Without global climate protection measures, snow will continue to decrease. At altitudes of up to 1000m, a 60% reduction in snow cover duration must be expected in this case. If global warming can be limited to the 2°C agreed at the Paris Climate Conference, the decrease will only be 20%.

While temperatures are clearly rising, there have only been local trends in precipitation in Austria in recent decades, if at all. The decrease in snow depth and snow cover duration is due to the fact that precipitation falls more often than rain and existing snow cover melts faster. Small-scale trends in the amount of precipitation can either dampen or intensify this process. It gets colder with increasing altitude, so that in future it will still be cold enough for snowfall more often than at lower altitudes. Whether or not there is a lot of snow in a given year still depends primarily on the weather at high altitudes. At low altitudes, the trend towards warmer temperatures is increasingly overshadowing the natural variability in snow depth, as the variability in precipitation is still there, but the precipitation often simply falls as rain.

So it's all the more important to get involved in climate protection and enjoy snow at low altitudes when it does show up!