The meteorological winter (December, January, February) has been over since Monday. In Austria, it went down in the statistics as the second warmest winter in recorded history at 2.7° above the long-term average, and in Germany it was also 3.4° warmer than the average. In Austria, only 2006/07 was warmer, 2013/14 was just as warm. This means that five of the 10 warmest winters in the 250-year measurement history have occurred in the last 10 years. Nevertheless, and because the weather is known to not always stick to the calendar, it was, is and will be relatively wintry, at least in the mountains.
Südstau last weekend
The last alert was about the südstau last weekend. We don't really know why, but some snowfall events get a lot more hype on the internet than others. The aforementioned südstau was one such case. Perhaps it was because there hadn't been any significant snowfall in the south (actually the south-east) until then, or because the whole thing had been on the cards for a relatively long time. Maybe we just like to believe what we want to believe and remember optimistic amounts of new snow rather than relativizing statements about temperature, snow line and model uncertainty.
In any case, the whole thing was quite something, although perhaps not everywhere as hoped. The southern depression was initially located in the area of Spain and gradually moved into the Mediterranean towards the Gulf of Genoa. Along the way, parts of Spain (Cantabrian Mountains) received up to 150 liters of precipitation per square meter within 48 hours, which is almost twice the amount of precipitation that would otherwise be expected there in the whole of February. The low moved along Vb paths and shoveled moist, warm air northwards at the front. While the amount of fresh snow was more than considerable, especially in Piedmont, the snow further east struggled with the mild temperatures. For example, 80mm of precipitation with almost 35cm of fresh snow was reported from the Gailtal valley, which speaks for anything but fluffy conditions.
Developments over the next few days
Today (Wednesday) towards the evening and tomorrow, a cold front will move across the Alps, bringing fresh snow over a large area, especially in the western Alps (see PowderAlert). The east is much less favored, but should not come away completely empty-handed. The low pressure system belonging to the front will bring cold air from the north towards the Mediterranean and stimulate the development of low pressure there. A marginal low will form, which will then also cause precipitation south of the main ridge. Friday will look fairly relaxed with the influence of a high pressure zone before the cold and wet weather continues at the weekend. The initial situation is not dissimilar to that of last week. A low pressure system from the North Atlantic will slide along the Azores High towards Central Europe. In terms of precipitation, the focus will once again be in the south. The exact development depends on the exact position of the trough axis and the Azores High. The oracle will certainly let us know.
