Snow height prediction raffle 2023/2024

For the eighth time in a row, the PowderGuide snow prediction game is taking place this year and once again there are plenty of prizes to be won. More on this below, but first the conclusion of last year's betting game.

A ranking list with the final results of all participants can be found in the image on the page.

New game with familiar rules

Whenever a "significant" storm brings a lot of fresh snow to the Alps, Ullr and its oracle are known to issue a PowderAlert with an estimate of the expected amount of fresh snow. In a PA, not only the amount but also a rough core zone is mentioned. The prediction game is held at a measuring station in the core zone. It works as follows: You predict the amount of new snow and then compare who was closest to the actual amount measured. For each PA, the measuring station, the period over which the prediction is made, the deadline for submitting a prediction and the initial snow depth are stated. The winner of the prediction game is the person with the best 5 predictions of the total amount of new snow over the season.

And what's there to win?

The three main prizes have not yet been revealed, but there will definitely be some great prizes - in other words, they have not yet been finalised...

Small prizes will also be raffled off again among all participants at the start of the next season - so even if you're not necessarily one of the Snow Smillas, you have a good chance of not going away empty-handed.

UPDATE on the prices from 02 December 2023

The three main prizes have now been selected - and we've made sure they're big because of the great start to the winter! The winner of this year's snow hike prediction game can look forward to the new PowderGuide touring skis from Valhalla! Fresh from the press, barely in the PG shop and not even tested by the PG team yet - which we will do as soon as possible in fresh powder! Not yet so tried and tested handmade and already a legendary ski in an exclusive PG design, that's a fair price for the prediction game king in the making, exclusively good winter!

The second prize this time will be the PowderGuide insulation jacket from our weather partner Penguin. Depending on availability, three colours and two cuts (women, men) are available, which may be extended by further colours for the new season! The most important features are summarised here. Here the jacket has already been extensively tested and here there is a gear-of-the-week about the PG version!

The third prize will be our PowderGuide fleece hoodie from Penguin. In this old competition article, you and everyone else can find some information about when and why the PowderGuide hoodie was invented. Here is another gear-of-the-week of the PG-free version! Depending on availability, two colours and two cuts are available, which will be extended to the next season if necessary.

How much snow is the fresh snow total

The maximum snow depth minus the initial snow depth in centimetres is defined here as the new snow total, i.e. the number in question - the image illustrates the whole thing graphically. In this example, the forecast period is 48 hours with an initial snow depth of 75cm. During these two days it most probably snowed most of the time. In the last few hours it snowed less or not at all, so that the snow cover settled and compacted. The maximum snow depth was 128cm, resulting in a new snow total of 128-75=53cm.

Please note that even if new snowfall amounts are sometimes displayed at weather stations, our own definition of the maximum change in snow depth applies to the prediction game. Here in the graphic, the sum of the red bars would be an unrealistic 150cm in the prediction period...

Ratio as a measure of deviation

The quota Q is defined as the deviation between the tipped (HN_t) and the measured new snow sum (HN_m):

Q = | HN_t - HN_m | / HN_m ,

i.e. the amount of the difference between the guess and the measurement, normalised to the measurement. This results in the limit values Q = 0 for estimated to the nearest centimetre, Q = 1 for not estimated at all (HN_t = 0), and Q > 1 for completely wrong ... For the deviation percentages, the odds are multiplied by one hundred.

Don't be put off by the odds formula. Each PowderAlert is accompanied by the current interim result of the prediction game, so you always know where you stand and who the toughest competitor is...

And how do I win now?

Only the five best tips count. This means that the overall winner at the end of the season is the one with the lowest average of the best five odds. In plain language, this means that you don't have to play every tip and can also join the betting game later in the year, because only five count anyway. As this winter is going to be awesome, there will be more than 15 PowderAlerts or prediction games this time.

To play along, all you have to do is:

1. Read the PowderAlerts regularly so you don't miss a prediction

2. Log in with your PowderGuide account

3. the Study PowderGuide weather maps

4. Submit your prediction as a comment under the PowderAlert, i.e. post your new snow total below.

So that you always know in time about a new PowderAlert, there is an e-mail notification for every new betting game, just send an mail! Or you can subscribe to the PowderGuide social media channels (FBook/Insta) to make sure you never miss a PowderAlert or betting game!

Have fun with the 2022/2023 snow tip game: Ullr keeps its fingers crossed!