Snow height prediction game 2022/23

For the seventh time in a row, the snow depth prediction game is taking place on PowderGuide this year and there are once again plenty of prizes to be won. More on this below, but first the conclusion of last year's prediction game:

The winners

We all know that the winter of 2021/2022 was a bit of a bummer... Things looked pretty good in January, but there was an eternally long dry spell from mid-February until the end of winter. Accordingly, the prediction game (also due to its late start) was not so comprehensive. There were only 8 picks and it was already over on April 10, 2022. You can find a ranking list with all the final results in the image at the end of the article.

In the last tip #8, something actually happened and Richard overtook Door21. However, the undisputed ChevChelios was uncatchable. The winners:inside of the 2021/2022 prediction game season are:

1st place: ChevChelios with a deviation of 0.076 wins a pair of Scott Scrapper Promodel Skis
2nd place: Richard with a deviation of 0.115 wins new Scott Google
3rd place: Door21 with a deviation of 0.14 wins a pair of SCOTT Freeride Poles

Congratulations to the winners! It should be noted that almost all players had some very good tips - if you play along more consistently, the chance of getting into the top 3 increases enormously...

In addition to the main winners, Python's random module has also selected 4 lucky ones:

Andrina
Bobonik
bl3acklama
skimale7892

These four will receive a voucher from the PowderGuide.com shop! If you are one of the lucky winners, please contact us at anselm(at)powderguide.com

Even with a lot of technical equipment, it is not yet possible to measure the amount of fresh snow directly and automatically. The good old fresh snow board is still the measuring device of choice! — Even with a lot of technical equipment, it is not yet possible to automatically measure the amount of fresh snow directly. The good old fresh snow board is still the measuring device of choice!

Anselm Köhler

New game with the same rules

Whenever a "significant" storm brings plenty of fresh snow to the Alps, Ullr and his oracle are known to give an estimate of the expected amount of fresh snow as a PowderAlert. In a PA, not only the amount but also a rough core zone is mentioned. The prediction game is held at a measuring station in the core zone: you predict the amount of fresh snow and then compare who was closest to the amount actually measured. For each PA, the measuring station, the period over which the prediction is made, the deadline for submitting a prediction and the initial snow depth are stated. The winner is the person with the best 5 tips over the course of the season.

And what can be won?

The three main prizes are not yet revealed, but there will once again be attractive prizes from PG partner Scott Sports!

This time there will be no daily prizes, but all participants will be entered into a draw for small prizes at the start of the next season. So even if you're not necessarily one of the Snow Smillas, you have a good chance of not coming away empty-handed.

How much snow is the new snow total?

The new snow total in centimetres, i.e. the number in question, is defined here as the maximum snow depth minus the initial snow depth - the image illustrates the whole thing graphically. In this example, the forecast period is 48 hours with an initial snow depth of 75 cm. During these two days it most probably snowed most of the time. In the last few hours it snowed less or not at all, so that the snow cover settled and compacted. The maximum snow depth was 128cm. This results in the total amount of fresh snow: 128-75=53cm.

Note: even if the amount of fresh snow is sometimes displayed at weather stations, our own definition applies to the prediction game. In the graphic above, the sum of the red bars would be an unrealistic 150cm in the prediction period...

Quota as a measure of the deviation

The quota Q is defined as the deviation between the predicted (HN_t) and measured amount of fresh snow (HN_m):

Q = | HN_t - HN_m | / HN_m ,

Q is therefore the amount of the difference between prediction and measurement, normalized to the measurement. This results in the limit values Q = 0 for accurately guessed to the centimeter, Q = 1 for not guessed at all (HN_t = 0), and Q > 1 for completely off. For the deviation percentages, the odds are multiplied by one hundred.

Don't be put off by the odds formula. Each PowderAlert is accompanied by the current intermediate score from the prediction game, so you always know where you stand and who the fiercest competitor is.

Pictorial explanation of our new snow total from the difference between the highest snow depth and the initial snow depth within the forecast period. — Pictorial explanation of our new snowfall total from the difference between the highest snow depth and the initial snow depth within the forecast period
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Anselm Köhler

And how do I win now?

Only the five best tips count. This means that at the end of the season, the person with the lowest average of the best five odds wins. In plain language, this means that you don't have to play every tip and can also join the prediction game later in the year, because only five count anyway. As this winter is going to be awesome, there will be more than 15 PowderAlerts and prediction games this time!

How do I take part?

To take part, all you have to do is:
1) read the PowderAlerts regularly so as not to miss a prediction
2) follow the link to the forum
3) log in to the forum
4) submit a prediction, i.e. add your predicted amount of fresh snow to the bottom of the prediction game post.

So that you always know in time about a new PA, there is an e-mail notification for every new prediction game. Simply contact anselm(at)powderguide.com! Or, you can subscribe to the PowderGuide social media channels (FB, insta) to never miss a PowderAlert or betting game!

Have fun with the 2022/2023 snow tip game: Ullr is keeping its fingers crossed!