Just in time for the first significant snowfall of the still young 2011/2012 winter season, the PowderGuide team presents a new editorial addition and completes the PG weather service: The PowderAlert appears before significant new snowfall and forecasts when, where and how the snow will fall and where you have the best chance of good snow. The experienced amateur meteorologist and powder snow enthusiast Lars Oelmann presents the first PowderAlert for the period from October 8, 2011.
But that's over now!
After a summer that was as bad for the glaciers in places as 2003 thanks to the warm and, above all, far too dry spring, the first cold breeze is now coming with fresh snow up to 1000 m.
Since the whole thing will be limited to the northern Alps, however, and there is hardly anything left of the snowfall in mid-September further south anyway, the first snow cover of the winter should be able to form, at least in the north.
The still very high ground temperature will be a problem: In the last two weeks, the 0° isotherm (zero degree limit) has been high summer highs at around 4000 m!
Because if, and it looks like it will, the whole thing above 2300-2500 m (northern slopes) will not thaw completely, there may be problems with the snowpack build-up later in winter.
I won't write much about the quantities now, because if you want to look for crevasses on completely apery glaciers in knee-deep snow with poor visibility: have fun.
In general, the whole thing will come down on the northern Alpine arc from Chamonix to the Dachstein. It tends to be in classic north-west accumulations. The amounts of the first cold wave until Saturday should not be much more than 30-40cm, as the models tend to overestimate such large weather changes.
However, as the accumulation situation will remain and the change between warm and cold fronts will guarantee new moisture supply until Tuesday, about 1 m (+/-20 cm) should be added above 2200 to 2400 m. In the meantime, however, a warm front will lead to a rise in the snow line to 2000 m on Monday before it drops again with the next cold front on Tuesday night.
But before everyone freaks out completely because there was no real north(west) congestion last year and the s!cken™ Pow, or the rocks below it, ruin their Hellbents, let me say: The strongly fluctuating snow line and the warm ground will mean that the snow cover on Tuesday is highly unlikely to reach a thickness of one meter even above 2500 m.
In the medium term, things are looking lively in the weather kitchen
This means that there may be another new report next week.
At least. Something is happening.
Powder to the people!
Text: Lars Oelmann