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PowderAlert 11 2016/16 | Westerly flow II - a low pressure system is skirting the Alps.

More snow in the west, but still driving with the handbrake on!

by Lars Oelmann 02/03/2017
Ullr finally thinks to himself again: "Oh, while I'm here, there'll be snow again". Thank goodness, you have to say, because there hasn't been much in France and western Switzerland so far. With the recent dump, you can probably go skiing there too. With the handbrake on. (Have there already been days without a handbrake this winter?)

The good thing is that the wind will turn more north-westerly than south-westerly on Monday, which should also bring a little more snow to the north side of Switzerland.

Areas and duration:

This alert applies from the Hautes Alpes to central Switzerland, although some outsider models are also predicting snow on the north side further east, but then probably less than the alert amounts. There could also be some snow in the southeast towards Carinthia/Italy, even more there, but this is very uncertain and I doubt whether the Italian low will push far enough towards the Alps.

The alert is valid until Monday afternoon, whereby most of the snow should have fallen by Monday morning.

Wind:

Strong southwest to west winds will turn to north by Monday and will probably weaken somewhat. Nevertheless, most of the snow will come above the tree line with a lot of wind and may then be slightly covered, which could be quite treacherous. The combo of little old snow, lots of wind and another sugar on top is not really tempting. See what the warning services have to say!

Snow line:

It will initially be between 1200-1400m in the south and in places already below 1000m in the north, and will gradually drop below 1000m everywhere by Monday. The weather is therefore suitable for powder. Due to minor foehn effects, the snow line may be 100-200m higher than expected locally because the low pressure is passing quite close to the Alps and the wind is constantly shifting.

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Quantities

The whole thing comes about with little congestion and more due to fronts, so you probably can't add much congestion effect. Generally speaking, the whole system is a bit erratic and, as with all Italian lows that form, a bit bitchy. However, from the Hautes Alpes to central Switzerland along the entire northwestern Alpine arc, it should be enough for 25-40 cm, and in the accumulation areas towards the French-Swiss border region, Belledonne, or northern Lower Valais, even up to 50 or 60 cm. Since there is never any serious congestion, there are probably no upward outliers.

In the southeast towards Carinthia/Italy/Slovenia, there may also be 0-50cm, depending on whether the low pressure comes to the Alps. Not very helpful, I know. The further south you go in Slovenia, the more likely it is that there will be significant fresh snow. I wish we had some real congestion from any direction and not always these strange mini lows....

Where should I go?

Into the core. Take it easy there and ride across meadows. It might break up for a few minutes between the individual fronts, as there is no real traffic jam. On Tuesday, you might be able to look higher for longer. However, there is not much of a base anywhere and it is usually not in a good condition in terms of readiness for release.

Mid-term:

It remains cool, but I don't think it will be enough for more than a nice bonus on Wednesday. So no more alerts on the horizon. After that, an easterly/south-easterly boredom flow seems to be building up, which might just be too dry for much fresh snow. The Mediterranean may surprise us though.

Powder to the people!

Your oracle.

PS: here's the link to the prediction game.

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