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PowderAlert 11 2025/ 26 | This is the End

My Only Friend, the End

02/18/2026
Lars Oelmann

The amount of fresh snow in the Ecrin massif is around 50 cm.

PowderGuide.com
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The amount of fresh snow in the Ecrin massif is around 50 cm.

PowderGuide.com
PG-ICON ensemble
The Doors sang about it, the Avengers made a movie about it - and only the sausage has two. The end. However, Ullr and the PowderAlert are not about something existential like the end of our own existence, the end of the world or the last relationship, but only about the end of our west or northwest situation, which is now rolling inexorably on. People in Valais and France are probably quite happy about this and even the oracle whistled through his teeth this morning when he saw that the avalanche danger had been upgraded to level 5. The little cousin of February 1999 is showing his teeth. (And who else but the Oracle finds a downgrade at level 5 a bit odd? "That's like getting an F+ at school," was the best comment in the chat today). Before the westerly thaw is over this weekend after almost two weeks, some more alarm-worthy snow is coming.

Alarm period and areas

The alarm runs from Wednesday morning to Friday lunchtime.

With this alert, it is easier to say where no snow will fall, as it snows first from the southwest and then from the northwest. We will probably only stay below 30 cm in a small part of the southern Alps, otherwise the alert amount will be reached at least everywhere. The core is likely to lie from Lower Valais to south of the Ecrin massif. A second core lies in the direction of the IT/SLO/AUT border triangle.

But due to the strange nature of the passing lows, there are massive uncertainties.

Wind

Strong to stormy but not as violent as recently. Nevertheless, dangerous again due to the old snow problem. More snow will fall in the stau than in the inner Alps.

Snow line

Rises relatively quickly to 1400-1800 m and only drops slightly to 1100-1500 m during the snowfall. The higher values tend to be in the southwest and the foothills of the Alps.

Full amounts from 1600-2000 m.

By Friday, 30-40 cm of fresh snow is possible in large parts of the northern and southern Alps, locally 40-70 cm in the western core areas from the lower Valais to far into southern France, with the highest values in the south-western part of the Écrins massif; 40-50 cm are also conceivable in the eastern core.

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By Friday, 30-40 cm of fresh snow is possible in large parts of the northern and southern Alps, locally 40-70 cm in the western core areas from the lower Valais to far into southern France, with the highest values in the south-western part of the Écrins massif; 40-50 cm are also conceivable in the eastern core.

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The amounts

By Friday, 30 to 40 cm of snow will fall almost everywhere in the northern and southern Alps, except in parts of Italy. In the western core, from Lower Valais to the far south in France, 40-70 cm will fall, with the higher values likely to occur in the south-western part of the Ecrin massif. In the eastern core, 40-50 cm are also possible.

However, all this is very uncertain and I would plan for negative surprises of 10-20 cm.

By Friday, 30-40 cm of fresh snow is expected in large parts of the northern and southern Alps. In the western core areas from Lower Valais to the far south of France, 40-70 cm is possible locally, with the highest values in the south-western part of the Écrins massif; 40-50 cm is also conceivable in the eastern core. Due to the uncertainties, however, negative deviations should be expected; in many places, the amounts could be 10-20 cm lower.

PowderGuide.com
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By Friday, 30-40 cm of fresh snow is expected in large parts of the northern and southern Alps. In the western core areas from Lower Valais to the far south of France, 40-70 cm is possible locally, with the highest values in the south-western part of the Écrins massif; 40-50 cm is also conceivable in the eastern core. Due to the uncertainties, however, negative deviations should be expected; in many places, the amounts could be 10-20 cm lower.

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Where should I go?

Just stay in the alert area of 9 and 10! It may break up in the afternoon on Wednesday, so you can enjoy the snow of alert 10 after the area closures. On Thursday you can go into the trees and on Friday there should be brief moments of sunshine.

Medium term

Saturday will probably be rather cloudy, but it will get warmer. After that, dry warmth and spring are on the cards from Sunday. So enjoy the next few days, but stay safe on the road.

Powder to the People

Your oracle

Prediction game #9: Core zone station "L'Ecreuleuse (2252m)"

The snow depth prediction game #9 takes place at station "L'Ecreuleuse (2252m)" from Tuesday, Feb 17th 22:00 until Feb 20th 14:00. The initial snow depth at station "L'Ecreuleuse (2252m)" is 338cm (17.2. 22:00).

Write your new snow tip as a comment below by Wednesday, February 18 at 22:00! Reminder: Prediction game rules, prediction reminder by email.

"Preliminary" intermediate score after tip 8, but not much more is happening.

Tippspielmeister
Ullr

"Preliminary" intermediate score after tip 8, but not much more is happening.

Tippspielmeister
Ullr

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