PowderAlert 12 2016/17 | Kick-off to exciting times in the south

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Alert areas and period:

Alert amounts will probably be reached in the French Alps and the far west of Switzerland and the southern Alps from eastern Ticino to Slovenia and Carinthia by Wednesday morning. The core zones should be in the direction of the Upper Engadine Adamello and Slovenia, as is so often the case with strong south-westerly conditions.

Snowfall limit:

Will probably be between 1500-1800 in France and sometimes around 1000-1200m in the main precipitation areas of the southern Alps, such as the Upper Engadine and the south-east. Warming due to foehn effects can influence the snow line, especially in the west. The lower values tend to be reached in the southern Alps. In the south you will be able to powder well from 1500m. Provided there is a base! Keep in mind that many areas are still in fall mode.

The quantities:

Ullr pours the carnival vacationers quite well. If there was a base, it would be quite chic. In the west, from the Maritime Alps up to the Swiss border, 30-50cm will probably be possible in the southwest, especially southwest of the Ecrins or at the end of the Aosta Valley.

In the southern Alps, 30-50cm will also fall from Ticino to Carinthia. Embedded in this, there are also 50-70cm in the core zones of the Upper Engadine/Adamello and in the border triangle of Italy/Slovenia/Carinthia. There won't be more than 80cm even in the one special accumulation hole (which is always there), the time span is too short for that and it then turns quite quickly to the northwest and dries out in the south.

Where should I go?

Normally I would say: Tuesday in the core into the trees and Wednesday higher up in the south, as it will probably remain quite cloudy in the west and the wind will have a northwesterly instead of a southwesterly component. But this winter, without a base and current local knowledge, I don't know if there's enough in the trees anywhere in the core. If not, maybe look for some meadows and hope for the best.

Mid-term:

I'm cautiously optimistic for the south, as this looks to be just the prelude to an exciting weekend, which could then see a significant uptick. Ullr might even want to create average snow depths in the south. Crazy! We'll see on Wednesday whether there's still enough to trigger a small alarm in the north on Thursday. But anyone looking for real depth without regrets should keep an eye on the south of the Alps next weekend. Hopefully we'll have more on that on Friday, when you can sacrifice yourselves at your Ullr shrine.

So keep your fingers crossed and hope for the best. (And stay humble in spirit in case this winter once again manages to break through the model forecasts downwards.)

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