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PowderAlert 14 2017/18 | Retour d'Ullr in the southwest

Ullr lets it rip!

by Lars Oelmann 01/05/2018
Ullr apparently no longer does it under quasi-apocalyptic amounts of snow and so he ponders: Which corner of the Alps is not yet far above average in terms of the base? He comes to the conclusion: Ah, western Italy! I'll send a retour d'est and do a few meters there too. As the god of skiers, there was too much wind and the snow line was too high for alarm 13, so he tweaks these settings too and the next mega dump is ready.

Alert period and area

This alert lasts until Tuesday evening (9.1.) and extends from Ticino, across the Monte Rosa massif and the Gran Paradiso to the Maritime Alps, with a core from Monte Rosa to the Turin Alps.

Wind

Significantly less than the last alert. Little towards Monte Rosa, a little more towards the Turin Alps, but no storm and protected powder should remain further up.

Snowfall line

Difficult again. In general, it should stay snowy from 1400-1700m, although it can go down lower and then up again. In Ticino and also on Monte Rosa, as well as in the inner Alps in general, it can also snow from 1000-1200m. It depends on the intensity and remoteness of the valleys. Powder is more likely to be safe from 1800m, as it can be quite wet below that. But in the southwest, the trees grow up to 2200m+, so that's quite ok.

Amounts

The amounts are between 50 and 90cm in Ticino (or a few cm more on the Simplon) and between 70 and 120cm on the southern edge of the Maritime Alps. In the core from Monte Rosa to the Turin Alps 120-200cm and I wouldn't want to rule out 2.2m or occasionally 2.5m in congested areas. Some models also spit out up to 3m, but I don't think so.

Yes, that's right, again several meters in 2-3 days. Again, it's the amount of new snow, not the snowpack. Snowpack growth should be around 60-80% of this.

Because the boundaries are extremely sharp, however, this can shift massively up or down very quickly in the peripheral areas.

Where should I go?

Until Tuesday in the core in the trees. It doesn't really matter where, as the tree line is high enough everywhere. What's more exciting is whether you can go to Ticino or the Simplon on Sunday (7.1.) if you live in the northern Alps. I would wait for the measuring stations, but it could be up to 40 cm there.

It should clear up on Wednesday, but I can't guarantee that in advance. Then you can also look at the meters up in the sun.

Medium-term

Alerts are not imminent, but it shouldn't get particularly warm, so you should be able to tour in the dumping areas at the weekend. It will remain quite mild in the north.

Nothing is clear yet for the period after that, but maybe something westerly will set in again.

Powder to the people!

Your oracle

Here's the prediction game for this alert!

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