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PowderAlert 4 2019/20 | The good, the bad, and the fluffy

The alarms continue, of course in the south.

by Lars Oelmann 11/18/2019
The Good: The fourth alarm of the season and the fourth südstau. In a mirror image of last season, Ullr presses the weather lock button and one südstau after another rushes into the Alps.

The Southern Alps are drowning in snow. Some stations in the Engadin have already set a new all-time November record - and that's in the middle of the month! And there's more snow to come. St. Maria, Samedan and the Diavolezza, for example, have never measured so much snow in November.

The bad: As in the last few alerts, the snow line is quite high in the east and it's not snowing all the way down in the west either, which is really rare for südstau in November.

The Fluffy: Yes, it's coming down. Ullr is sending us lots of white joy again and is laying down a powerful base in the south.

Alert period and areas

The alert goes until Wednesday morning and stretches from the Italian Maritime Alps (there's an easterly component in there, not much coming in France) via Monte Rosa to Slovenia, with the alert only just filling up between the Upper Engadine and the Dolomites.

The core lies between the Maritime Alps and the Simplon and another small maximum is in the east in the Dolomites in the maps.

Wind

Quite drafty at the top, but it keeps within limits as it's not a massive system bringing the snow. In the congestion itself, the winds are relatively high friendly low and easing towards the end of the event. Full amounts are in the west of Italy up to the French side of the main ridge, otherwise there is a lot of east in play and it will probably not push over as massively as in alarm 3.

Snowfall limit

The guessing game continues. Depending on how inner-Alpine you are, you can either recite the numbers you want and it works or not. As in the last alerts, the further east the warmer, but it will also rain more in the west than before.

In the west, snow up to 1000m is possible towards Monte Rosa, southern Piedmont and northwestern Ticino, and rain up to 1300-1500m is possible in the foothills of the Alps. In the east towards the Dolomites and especially Slovenia, rain up to 1600-1700m in the inner Alps and sometimes up to 2100m in the foothills of the Alps.

Everything in between is possible. It doesn't make it any better that it starts cooler today, rises tomorrow and should cool down again towards Wednesday, but telling you it can rain between 1000m and 2100m doesn't help either.

The amounts

Not huge but decent. In the core of the (Italian) Maritime Alps up to Monte Rosa or northwestern Ticino (the border is quite sharp) there will be 40-70cm of snow and even 80 or 90cm can be in a pothole. Then 30-40cm until the second small core in the Dolomites, where it can also reach 60cm.

Where should I go?

As in the last alert: In the west into the trees, as it will probably rain more in the east. Most of the base should already be sufficient for real trees, but in any case you need visibility on Tuesday. It will clear up on Wednesday and you can take a careful look further up to see what Alert 3 and 4 have brought.

Medium-term

After that, it will remain relatively warm and probably also quite cloudy in the south, so not really ideal touring weather. It is still unclear whether there will be an alarm for Thursday or Friday and exactly how warm it will be. So keep your fingers crossed and sacrifice at the Ullrschrein. It's worked well so far, keep going!

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