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PowderAlert 5 2024 /25 | May you live in interesting times!

It's snowing. But where, how much and at what snow line is extremely difficult.

by Lars Oelmann 01/08/2025
This Chinese curse (all Sinologists roll their eyes because the oracle is giving out dangerous half-knowledge) describes our coming days quite well. But the oracle wants - no, has to - write something now, even if a lot is still unclear for Friday/Saturday, because it's snowing. And it's actually snowing right through to Saturday with short breaks.

Only where, how much and where the snow line will be is still remarkably nebulous.

The path of the snow bringing storm system, the US annexation of Greenland. Anything can happen, nothing has to. This year, there are more and more situations where even the oracle scratches its head and has to accept a wide range of results. Ullr is adapting to the spirit of the times and becoming less predictable. You can think what you like about politicians and Nordic gods, but there's not much you can do about it.

But the oracle is not alone. Yesterday evening, the oracle was sent a screenshot in which the MeteoSwiss model indicated a precipitation range of 1-120mm for Friday in Valais. Just for that day. Well...er...the Oracle hopes it can tell you a bit better what will happen in this alert.

And one more thing on our own behalf: If the oracle predicts a certain range of snow depths, like at Christmas and right now in the south, they can come, dear betting players, because as much as the oracle flirts with social media and hype, it won't predict anything that can't happen.

It is far too afraid of being dragged off to Offenbach by the DWD's black minivans and having to clean precipitation measuring cups in an officially authorised and environmentally friendly black site ;)

Alert period and areas

It's coming from the west and once again it's snowing the most in the west. The alert extends from the French Hautes Alpes to the Arlberg. Everyone else is left more or less empty-handed.

The alert lasts until Saturday evening, although there is a good chance that it will also be over on Saturday morning.


Wind

Storm, stormier stormiest! It only subsides on Saturday. It pushes deep into the Valais and along the main French-Italian ridge. There is some protection in the inner Alps.

Snow line

Rides a rollercoaster. It's high up at the moment. Then it goes down to below 1000 metres and rises again on Friday. How high? That depends. In France it will almost certainly rise again to 1700-2000m In Valais up to 1200 -1800m, or not, because it could also be that it barely rises above 800-1200m, as in north-east Switzerland and the Arlberg, and stays even lower in the inner Alps. The whole system is still oscillating a few hundred kilometres back and forth depending on the model and the run. It will be down again on Saturday. Full amounts from 1600-2200m from Nordbünden/Arlberg to France.

The quantities

And that brings us to the next problem. Here too, the trajectories and the accumulation are still unclear. There should actually be around 30-60cm from the Arlberg to the Bernese Oberland, but there are also crystal balls that see up to 100cm on the Arlberg or in Glarus. But this is not likely. (The range in the models in the east is still 15-120cm).

From the northern Valais to France, 50-80cm of snow will fall, and up to 80-110cm in Stau areas. Most forecasts are in relative agreement here. (Whereby the spread also ranges from 40-130cm).

Where should I go?

That's much easier. Deep into the French Alps or the Valais with forest above 1800m, because you could need that on Friday with the fluctuating snow line. Thursday is similar, but there is still relatively little new.

On Saturday, I'd bet on a combined area with options to go higher in the core. The sun will be shining everywhere on Sunday and it will get warmer from Monday onwards, but powder tours should still be possible for a while on northern aspects due to the low humidity.

Medium term

Unfortunately, Ullr is more predictable here than in the short term. Dry and warm until the end of the forecast. Not much is likely to happen before the last week of January. In the areas with snow, you can still do something for another week. In the areas without snow in the east and south, people should consider drinking beer and sprucing up the Ullr shrine to make sure that's not it.

Powder to the people!

Your oracle, who will probably also use the weekend

Snow depth betting game #5: Station "L'Ecreuleuse (2252m)"

The snow depth betting game no. 5 takes place at the station "L'Ecreuleuse (2252m)" from Wednesday, 8th Jan 18:30 to 11th Jan 20:00. The initial value of the snow depth at the station "L'Ecreuleuse (2252m)" is 183cm (8 Jan. 18:30).

Write your fresh snow tip as a comment below by Thursday, 9 January at 20:00! As a reminder, tip game rules, Tip player reminder email.

The first place winner of this year's betting game builds his favourite slats at Valhalla - Handmade ski dreams from the Schwarzwald!

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