It's already started to snow and the new alert has to come, you think? Quite right, but you won't miss anything today, because this alarm is for Thursday / Friday, as the alarm amounts won't fall until tomorrow. Dear disciples of Ullr, After some of you have already swum through the alpine meadows with the sharks after the first dump, Ullr thinks: "Well, where there is already something, it makes sense to pour something on top of it, otherwise the greedy broad-slat disciples will break their skis". No sooner said than done.
And where is it snowing?
Thanks to Ullr's double whammy, we have another north-westerly accumulation that should bring significant amounts of fresh snow from northern France from the Isere department to the Arlberg. The core of it all will probably lie somewhere between the Bernese Oberland, Central Switzerland and Glarus, as the westerly flow will turn to the north to northeast during the course of Thursday.
What about the snow line and the wind?
The all-clear has been given here, as the snow line will remain below 1000 m and will drop back down to the specialist areas tomorrow and it won't rain down to the glaciers like last time. There is already some wind, but except for the high mountains, ridges and crests, the snow should mostly stay put, because it's not happy hurricane time like last time.
The amounts
It will snow rather gently today with small fronts from the west and won't really accumulate yet, but the current will turn to the north during the course of the night, so it should get a bit more intense.
By Thursday evening, 25-40 cm will be added from Northern France to Arlberg outside the core, with a possible accumulation bonus of 10 cm . In the core, which could probably extend from the Bernese Oberland via Central Switzerland to Glarus, it will be a good 40-60 cm, as the models criminally underestimate the accumulation and the wind comes from the north in all altitude layers. I wouldn't be surprised by 70 or 80 cm in north/northeast accumulations here, but only in very isolated cases and only if it really jams up. Further east it could be 15-30 cm and nothing in the south.
However, classic congestion also means that it will not reach the main ridge, but that there will be significantly more in the northern congestion areas than in the inner Alps. I don't expect more than two thirds of the maximum volumes mentioned on the main ridge. And remember: now it has a base, so there will be snow slabs again. So don't just think about coreshots when choosing your route and resume your daily avalanche bulletin reading routine!
What should I do?
Go skiing, doh! Seriously, today (Wednesday) it's not so much worth it, but Thursday I'd go somewhere in the trees or on the alpine pasture where I know the base and can see something, and then Friday higher up in the sunshine. If you want to get really deep and fluffy, you probably won't be able to avoid the core in Switzerland, everyone else will probably be happy in the areas outside the core. The only certainty in the medium term is that nothing is certain. There may be a weekend or Sunday/Monday alert before the big warm spell, but this is still on melting ground, to use the jargon. After that, the warm, dry Mediterranean will grace us with its weather again. But if you sacrifice diligently at the Ullr shrine you trust, this will surely only be a short episode.Powder to the People!Your Oracle
