The same procedure as every year? Is Ullr behaving like in the New Year's Eve classic Dinner for one? Another südstau, another massive dump. Is this becoming a habit again, is Ullr no longer very imaginative and taking last year's dump blueprints? So it's snowing and everyone wants to know: How low is the snowfall line in this disgusting Mediterranean warm soup? In the Maritime Alps and the rather cooler peripheral areas, it will stay snowy above 2000 m permanently and it may even snow down to 1700 or 1800 m at times. Further east, I would only expect snow above 2200 m, although it may even flake down to 1900 m here. On the central Apensüdhang it will probably remain snowy above 1600 to 180 0m. In isolated valleys, it can go much lower, as there is little air movement and there is continuous precipitation over three days. So I'm pretty sure the snow line will drop below 1500m and wouldn't be surprised by 1000 to 1200m either.
The glop limit will be between 1700 to 1900 in the main precipitation areas and 2300 m in the southeast, which means that you could possibly get into the trees between Monte Rosa and Engadin on Tuesday or Wednesday. Otherwise - and if you want to be on the safe side - you'll only have to go higher after the precipitation ends on Thursday.
The amounts are huge and especially in the alpine areas it will be very dangerous again on Thursday, as the first dump is now already underneath as a sliding layer. So read the bulletins and don't fall prey to pre-season powder fever, but make the right decisions.
What amounts of fresh snow are falling where?
Now the amounts: It will be difficult three days in advance, but splitting the alert doesn't make much sense either. In the main precipitation areas from Monte Rosa to the Upper Engadine, 100 to 150 cm of snow will fall and, depending on the flow or development of the low, I could also imagine 200 cm of snowfall somewhere in Ticino, Monte Rosa or Simplon. However, I don't think that the measuring stations will record more than 80 to 110 cm of snow cover due to the long periods of continuous snowfall. With such quantities, the warmth and the time periods, these deviate considerably from the new snow totals. In the high Alps beyond 2600 m, they will come closer, but the wind is always the main factor there anyway.
In the south-east, the rainfall will be very high, so that the precipitation totals, which are also quite high, are unlikely to bring more than 50 to 80 cm of fresh snow. The Maritime Alps can expect 70 to 120 cm of fresh snow, as they are virtually in the path of the southerly flow to the central Alpine ridge.
In the neighboring areas of France and the main Alpine ridge, 40 to 80 cm may fall, depending on how far the precipitation pushes in. However, as the high-altitude flow is not quite as strong, I see a greater decrease compared to the southern accumulation areas. There probably won't be a spread to the northern slopes of the Alps like last time, so all the areas not mentioned will get less or nothing.
Ullr is still busy for the weekend and will send his next greeting. Whether there will be something for the north again, or whether Ullr will recycle old 2013/14 dump scenarios, you will of course find out here fresh from the snow crystal ball.
Powder to the people!
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