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WeatherBlog 14 2021/22 | The storm is subsiding

Still unstable, but no longer quite as stormy

by Lea Hartl 02/23/2022
The weather will remain windy and generally mixed for a few more days. From the weekend onwards, high pressure will increasingly prevail and, in keeping with the meteorological start of spring (March 1), the coming week looks very sunny and mild.

Atlantic lows and current situation

First, let's take a look at the large-scale constellation that has kept us busy over the last few days. What has produced a stormy PowderAlert in the northern Alps has caused severe storm damage in northern Europe. Where exactly the weather starts and the first seeds for such hurricane lows are sown is almost a philosophical question - after all, the earth is round, the atmosphere is in three-dimensional motion, everything is constantly in flux and every particle is somehow connected to all the others. In the interests of reducing complexity, let's limit ourselves to the connections that are still visible and reasonably comprehensible on colorful, two-dimensional maps:

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The strongly pronounced tropospheric polar vortex is located somewhat off-center between the extreme northeast of Canada and Greenland. We ignore the stratospheric polar vortex (one floor further up) (see above), but it fits into the same picture. Between Canada and Greenland, very cold polar air is directed over the northwestern Atlantic. The cold air meets the much warmer, more humid Atlantic air there. This is a rather explosive combination that provides a continuous supply of energy for strong low-pressure development in the North Atlantic. The zonal and very powerful jet over the Atlantic then pushes the lows directly towards Europe, where they arrive from a north-westerly direction.

Outlook

This basic pattern is still in place, but is slowly weakening. Today (Wednesday, left map above), a corresponding front is also grazing the northern Alps, but the wind speeds are no longer as extreme as they were recently. Tomorrow (Thursday) will be briefly calmer and quite sunny everywhere, with the next disturbance approaching in the evening or in the night to Friday (middle map): east of a low-pressure area developing over Greenland, the Azores High will be able to bulge up and undulate the jet, so that the Alps will move into a more northerly flow (most recently: west to northwest). However, this is significantly less turbulent and energetic than the weather of the last few days. "Unsettled" in this case (for Fri. and Sat.) does not mean gales and massive amounts of fresh snow, but a few moderate snow showers and the occasional sunny window.

From Sunday (top right map) and in the forecast for next week, the signs are pointing to sunshine and warmth. The Azores High will move towards us and a wedge of high pressure will build up over Central Europe and reach as far as Scandinavia, deflecting Atlantic disturbances to the north. In addition, the frontal zone shifts northwards overall. This will clear the way for significantly warmer air masses from the south in the Alpine region. As usual, everything is still subject to some uncertainty, but there is a tendency towards stable high-pressure weather next week to take advantage of the recent snowfall with very spring-like temperatures.

For now, however, the WeatherBlog is going skiing and making the most of winter while it's still here!

This article has been automatically translated by DeepL with subsequent editing. If you notice any spelling or grammatical errors or if the translation has lost its meaning, please write an e-mail to the editors.

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