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WeatherBlog 15 2022/23 | Unsettled in the south, outlook uncertain

Relatively cool, north-south sun-cloud mix

by Lea Hartl 03/01/2023
The next few days will be relatively sunny in the north with "normal", more or less seasonal temperatures. In the south, it will remain rather mixed with the influence of low pressure. There will also be some snow in the southwest (see current PowderAlert). It will become more uncertain towards the weekend; according to the current model opinion, the current will turn to the north on Saturday.

Current situation and outlook

The Alps lie between high pressure in the north and low pressure in the south. Accordingly, the weather is divided into two parts with clouds and precipitation in the south and significantly more sunshine (in some cases only above the fog line) in the north. In the current alert areas far to the southwest, the southeasterly flow is expected to provide some fresh snow until tomorrow (Thursday). In the north, where there has also been some snowfall recently with a cold northerly flow, the snowfall has now stopped again.

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The further development is not uninteresting. The westerly flow is still blocked over a large area by a powerful area of high pressure, which currently lies just north of the British Isles. The slight southerly flow is developing on the eastern edge of this extensive high pressure zone these days. The direct path that Atlantic disturbances could take to Europe is blocked by the high pressure. Any "weather" that reaches us must therefore somehow get around it.

The high is making no attempt to break up or move on in the foreseeable future. However, the models are currently of the opinion that it is moving retrogradely, i.e. westwards - an unusual direction of movement! GFS sees the core of the high pressure zone east of Greenland at the weekend. This means that the Atlantic will initially remain blocked, but cold air masses from the north will no longer have to make a detour to the east to reach the Alps. Depending on exactly how this continues and where the pressure centers come to lie, there is potential for fairly wintry weather over the course of the next week. As usual: No guarantee on the crystal ball!

Miscellaneous

The snow conditions are still very, very below average. The SLF takes a closer look at the "historic lack of snow" in a blog post. Depressing! The snowfall in parts of the Northern Alps over the last few days has been somewhat heavier than expected by the models and PowderAlerts - the easterly flow directions are comparatively rare and fickle and the corresponding accumulations are difficult to assess. Due to the low temperatures, fairly high amounts of fresh snow were achieved with less spectacular precipitation. However, CRs and other tour reports from the regions so blessed sound more like early November than early March: powdering without a base on previously barren meadow slopes. The winter feeling is of course still enjoyable and we don't want to complain too much.

The first winter reviews are also trickling in just in time for the start of spring today. Of course, we're not going that far yet. As we all know, spring is a very nice part of the skiing winter! The statistical winter (December, January, February) was mild and mostly snow-free. In Austria, the distribution of snow varied from region to region, with the heavy snowfall in Upper Styria at the beginning of February, for example, bringing this region close to normal values. The MeteoSchweiz also reports: Warm and dry, here also without regional, almost normal-wet outliers. Perhaps March will somehow put things right and fill the deficit a little before the summer.

This article has been automatically translated by DeepL with subsequent editing. If you notice any spelling or grammatical errors or if the translation has lost its meaning, please write an e-mail to the editors.

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