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WeatherBlog 3 2023/24 | Watch out, it's snowing again!

before it becomes warm and dry in the medium term.

by Sebastian Müller 12/12/2023
Compared to the last few winters, the start of the season was reasonably good for the northern side of the Alps. Even Munich and even Lower Bavaria enjoyed and groaned under unprecedented amounts of snow. This was followed by a warm and wet period of precipitation, which caused considerable damage to the snow cover at lower altitudes. But now a cold front gives us hope for good fresh snow before we head towards sunny times. We are also noticing that the southern side of the Alps is still suffering from a considerable lack of snow.

The weather situation and the continuing precipitation

The snowfall of the current PowderAlert on the north side of the Alps was heavy at high altitudes and unfortunately very wet at lower altitudes. But after the warm front, the cold front is now crossing the Alps, and the precipitation that comes with it should fall more frequently as snow at lower altitudes towards Friday: definitely down to below 1500m. I don't want to anticipate the oracle too much and hope for his message, but a solid amount of fresh snow could arrive on the main Alpine ridge and from Saturday there could be some really nice bluebird days with powder.

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The medium-term outlook

The last bubble of the Arctic air mass is moving away just like the low pressure area and the Azores High is expanding into Central Europe. This means it will be warm and dry from the weekend onwards, and all the models are pretty much in agreement on this. Whether this is due to the upcoming Christmas... it seems likely. We hope that this weather situation won't last long. We can't say anything reliable about that at the moment, and that's a good thing.

PG-ICON weather tutorial #3: Influence masks

For the new snow forecast, we offer you three influence masks that show where snowfall is affected by warmth, lack of base or strong wind. The mask overlays each grid cell in which the respective criterion is fulfilled with a green circle. The criteria are selected as follows: for "lack of base" the snow depth (for initialization) must be less than 10cm, for "warmth" the near-surface air temperature must be greater than 0°C for three hours on the respective day, and for "strong wind" wind gusts > must be 36 km/h. The masks are also added up for the accumulated amount of fresh snow. Finally, "all influences" can be combined.

The display may still be in need of improvement, but the combined information is certainly helpful. As a future mask, we also offer the prospect of "sleet", which we would define if 10mm of rain falls in the same period during snowfall.

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