Unfortunately, the weather in the Alps is still pretty stuck and warm. A persistent trough in the North Atlantic is directing very warm air masses towards us. In the Alps, minor disturbances alternate with sunshine, while further north it has been and will continue to be very stormy (but still warm). A lasting change in the general weather situation is not in sight. If there are no major powder events on the horizon, let's turn our attention to the major climate policy event that recently took place. The conference in Paris was the 21st annual meeting of the members of the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 1992), as well as the 11th meeting of the parties to the Kyoto Protocol established in 1997. The title COP21 stands for 21st Conference of the Parties. Probably the greatest success of the conference is that the 195 (!) participating countries were actually able to agree on a joint document in which goals and wishes are formulated. This can be downloaded here as a pdf and it is not as long and complicated as you might think. The newly adopted points can be found from page 21 onwards.
Results
Probably the most relevant paragraph is Article 2 (p. 22). This states that the aim is to "strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change" in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication". In order to achieve this, the increase in the global mean temperature is to be limited to well below two degrees above pre-industrial levels. Efforts will be made to limit the rise to 1.5°C, as this would "significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change".
Targets and measures for individual countries will be re-evaluated every five years, with the expectation that higher targets will be set each time. Substantial financial assistance for developing countries has been agreed to support them in the transition to renewable energies. The agreement is based on the so-called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC). These are more or less voluntarily developed proposals from individual nations on what they can contribute to solving the problem. Limiting the rise in temperature to the desired extent is not possible with the ideas contained here alone, which is why countries are required to make more of an effort. Another more or less formulated goal is to reach the maximum level of global emissions "as soon as possible", whereby "in the second half of this century" a "balance" between anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and "removal by greenhouse gas sinks" is to be established (Article 4). The vague point on "removal" causes some speculation. There are several ways to do this, the simplest of which is to plant lots of trees. The document recognizes that even with a rise below 2°C, "dangerous" impacts are to be expected, which for some island states threatened by sea level rise, for example, is a sign that the global community is taking the problems of small nations seriously, at least in theory. Although not all goals were achieved, most analyses agree that the conference was a success for small countries that do not have an important voice internationally but are severely affected by climate change. For example, the Climate Vulnerable Forum, which includes 43 developing countries, was able to make its voice heard. The agreement will enter into full force if at least 55 countries, which are responsible for at least 55% of global emissions, ratify the resolution next spring.
Conclusion
As mentioned at the beginning, the most important result is probably the existence of a result at all. It has been recognized that there is a problem and, as we all know, this is an important step on the way to a solution. The formulations go further and are more concrete than was largely expected, which is not difficult if you have very low expectations. The British newspaper Guardian put it this way:
By comparison to what it could have been, it's a miracle. By comparison to what it should have been, it's a disaster.
Wording of Article 2 of the decision:
1. This Agreement, in enhancing the implementation of the Convention, including its objective, aims to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change, in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty, including by:
(a) Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change;
(b) Increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development, in a manner that does not threaten food production;
(c) Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate resilient development.
2. this Agreement will be implemented to reflect equity and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances.
