It is currently becoming clear how little sense the idea of "good" and "bad" weather makes. If you have too much of one, it soon becomes the other. The extremely dry November is increasing the risk of forest fires, concentrations of particulate matter in the basins are reaching record levels and, unsurprisingly, almost all ski resorts without glaciers are postponing their openings. Some weather stations in the Alps will probably end November with 0.0 mm of precipitation.
Outlook: The marmot greets us daily
No sudden onset of winter is expected in the near future either. At the weekend, the foothills of a trough over Scandinavia will brush the northern Alps, but this will only bring a brief cooling and possibly three to five snowflakes. At least there will be some movement in the fog soup in the lowlands and the westerly flow should break up the inversion in many areas. As a result, Europe will move to the front of an east Atlantic low, which will provide a southwesterly flow in the Alps and potential for southerly foehn winds.
The marmot will probably continue to greet us for a while, but it is increasingly dreaming of the sea and beckoning towards the Atlantic. The weather change at the weekend may be of little relevance in terms of skiing, but nevertheless means that the days of monster highs over Europe are over. During the stationary high pressure situation of the last few weeks, the influence of the Atlantic weather maker was not noticeable. Now it is gaining influence again and there is a chance, at least in the long term, that the necessary low-pressure manufacturing will kick in.
Miscellaneous: the IPCC special report on extreme weather events
In the last few days, various Austrian, German and Swiss quality media outlets have reported that, according to an IPCC special report on extreme weather, we will soon be dealing with temperatures of 50° Celsius. Such a figure is not mentioned at all. An assessment of the report and the media response as well as the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change itself can be found here.
