It's time for the Christmas alert and some people seem to have been good and written Powder on Santa's wish list. Since Ullr and Santa Claus always hang out together, he of course passed this on to Ullr over a beer and we are properly rewarded with südstau. But apparently some people on the northern side of the Alps were naughty, so it stays foehn there for the time being and only starts to snow later and less.
But before we get to the amounts and mountain massifs, a warning: This is not an avalanche report, we are happy about the fresh snow, but if you have been following the LLBs recently, then you know that the avalanche situation will be extremely critical, because in many cases we have a completely build-up transformed snowpack on which large amounts of fresh snow will be deposited with hurricanes. Recipe for disaster, as the Anglo-Saxon would say. So be incredibly careful when you go out into the sun on 27.12. And even in the trees it doesn't look any better before then, layers of ball bearings everywhere. I know there's been no snow for weeks and now comes the monster dump, but there's nothing to die for.
But now let's continue with the keyword monster dump, because there is snow, even in huge quantities in the south: In the south and south-west of the Alps, there will be a widespread 70-100 cm of fresh snow, in the potholes from Ticino to the Adamello region and in the Dolomites to the Slovenian-Italian border region, I don't rule out amounts of up to 150 cm, but I think that this could be achieved at one or two stations at most. Normal potholes should get 110-140 cm. A similar amount is forecast in the French Maritime Alps, but this is not the classic accumulation, so I'm staying conservative here with 60-90 cm. However, the magic meter will almost certainly be reached more frequently in the south. Due to the strong high-altitude flow, I also see large amounts in the neighboring regions such as Gotthard or Upper Engadine, which should not be much behind the classic southern congestion regions. Carinthia, East Tyrol and the main Austrian Alpine ridge are also likely to see a lot of snow, although on the main ridge, e.g. in Ötztal etc., I see 40-80 cm rather than the full 70-100 cm. Towards the north, the amount of fresh snow will decrease significantly due to the foehn winds and we will be able to enjoy storms, warmth and sunshine until 26.12.
In France and southwestern Switzerland, I'm expecting much less north of the Ecrin, although 20-50 cm should fall there depending on the southwestern favorable location. In the Arlberg region and northern Switzerland, i.e. the Bernese Alps, Lake Lucerne, Glarus up to the Arlberg, some precipitation is also expected to spread on 26.12., so there could also be 15-30 cm there. There is not much left of the snowfall forecast yesterday and before, especially in the north-eastern Alps, so I don't want to rule out higher amounts there due to the uncertainties, but the amounts could also be between zero and 20 cm, especially from Tyrol to the east towards the Dachstein. In the northern regions, however, 26.12. can also surprise with the spread of precipitation and I predict possible bonuses of 10-20 cm (i.e. count on the 15-30 or the 0-20. But I tend not to expect that). Now a look into the crystal ball: In the medium term, it will remain a southerly to westerly flow, but at least it will stay humid and not too warm, so that a small refreshment alert could possibly come before New Year's Eve for regions similar to today. However, the general weather situation will remain rather hostile to the north of the Alps. Unfortunately. If you have the choice, the southern and western Alps remain a good choice as a vacation destination. So take care when powdering (!), stay alive so that you can enjoy the next alert. Powder to the people! Your oracle
