WeatherBlog 21 2021/22 | Easter: Bright to cloudy

Current situation and outlook

The current pressure distribution is roughly as follows (from west to east): Low south of Greenland, high off the European Atlantic coast, small low slightly east of Gibraltar, high over Italy, Alpine region, Balkans, low to the east. The two highs (Atlantic and Alpine region) merge north of the small low in the south to form a high pressure bridge. The low is thus cut off from the large-scale flow and left to its own devices. It will move slowly to the east and stir up desert dust in Morocco and Algeria, which will then be transported towards the Alps in a familiar pattern in the southern high pressure current. This time, this is likely to be felt primarily in the western Alps, with less arriving in the east. Today (Wednesday) and tomorrow will be summery warm with a light Föhn wind - yesterday was the first "summer day" (temperature over 25°C) of the year in Innsbruck. Nevertheless, when choosing a firn tour, especially in the west, you should bear in mind that the radiation may be dampened by the dust, although as usual it is difficult to say exactly where the dust will cloud the forecast sunshine and how much.

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Winter says goodbye at low altitudes. — Winter says goodbye at low altitudes
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The low in the south moves further and further to the SE and thus loses influence. The high in the Atlantic will extend further north and the "countermovement" downstream will intensify. On Friday, a cold front will reach us from the north, bringing clouds, cooler temperatures and a little precipitation in the east. In the western Alps, it is likely to remain dry and largely sunny, with only the cooling caused by the change in air masses being felt here.

The development at the weekend is still somewhat uncertain. Cool, relatively sunny weather with a west-east temperature gradient is currently most likely, as the eastern Alps are closer to the low pressure in the east. If this low moves a little, the weather character could also change quickly. The weather forecast for next week looks rather mixed. Temperatures will remain subdued compared to the current summery values, or rather in line with the time of year. The comparison of the ENS meteograms for Innsbruck and Chamonix (in the gallery below) shows the west-east differences quite clearly: In the more easterly Innsbruck, some runs see significantly more precipitation potential and a more pronounced drop in temperatures than in the west, where the high pressure influence remains stronger.

500hPa geopotential and ground pressure, GFS, Wednesday, Friday, Sunday. If the position of the low pressure system in the east changes, the weather may also change significantly.

meteociel.fr

Miscellaneous

MeteoSwiss has compiled a review of last March in Europe, which once again highlights the dry conditions in the Alpine region, among other things. This contrasts with the above-average wet conditions in Spain and Portugal. Temperatures were (very) high compared to the climatological average in the north of Europe, but average or below average in the south. In global terms, March was warmer than average. An English summary of March in a climatological context can be found here.

At the end of March, the stratospheric polar vortex said goodbye to its wintery state and went into "summer mode". What this means and how the events in the stratosphere are related to the lower atmospheric layers is summarized quite clearly here.

The WeatherBlog, like the polar vortex, is also slowly moving towards summer mode. Next week we will report again as usual, after that we will make it dependent on the weather.