Lea Hartl

The WeatherBlog occasionally reads in The New Yorker magazine, which is usually as great as it is sometimes lengthy, and has found an interesting article there. It's about literary weather: the weather as meaningful plot background, stylistic device, novel character. Before weather forecasts were known, the weather was logically a direct manifestation of divine anger or pleasure. Where else could it come from? From the Greek legends of the gods to the Old Testament, the weather is angrily tossed around with thunder, lightning, wind, waves and the odd plague of locusts. Classics by Charles Dickens and the Brontë sisters would probably only be half as thick if the London fog and stormy weather of English upland moors had been given less of a supporting role.

The weather in Central Europe is currently divided into two parts. A sharp air mass boundary separates the north and east from the much milder south and west. The differences are particularly evident in Germany, where, for example, temperature differences of up to 20° were measured on Monday. In Werl (NRW), on the warm side, the daily maximum temperature was 5.5°C, while in Diepholz, 120 km away on the cold side, it was only -4.7°C. The Alps are on the warm side of the air mass boundary in a humid westerly current.

A powerful hurricane depression called Eckard has formed over Iceland. Between Eckard and a high pressure system over Scandinavia, the strong pressure difference is shoveling masses of warm subtropical air towards us and much further north. The North Pole reaches temperatures of almost 50° above average (equivalent to just above zero).

At the moment, some people are probably wondering about the weather, which doesn't seem to fit in with the dream of a White Christmas. For example, the WeatherBlog received the following question: "Hi, can you explain when this warm and sunny bastard weather will disappear? And what does it have to do with climate change if it gets 2 degrees warmer overall? Why is it not -2 degrees in December instead of -5 degrees as it used to be, but +15 degrees for weeks on end? What does global warming have to do with the fact that in recent years we have often had a tendency towards a persistent mild south-westerly flow...?"

Unfortunately, the weather in the Alps continues to be rather stagnant and warm. A persistent trough in the North Atlantic is directing very warm air masses towards us. In the Alps, minor disturbances alternate with sunshine, while further north it has been and will continue to be very stormy (but still warm). A lasting change in the general weather situation is not in sight.

Avalanche accidents with injuries or even fatalities are rarely solely due to snowpack structure, terrain and weather. Rather, one particular element often plays the most important role: when people are traveling in groups, decisions are made that are not always the best ones and can end tragically in the worst case.

Apart from a few snowflakes today (Wednesday) and a not-so-spectacular cold front at the weekend, sunshine and mild temperatures are here to stay. On the occasion of the climate conference in Paris and because the weather outlook isn't particularly exciting, we're repeating a few basics today.

In all probability, 2015 will be the warmest year on record. This has been on the cards for a long time and everyone has probably noticed by now. Recently, the WMO issued another press release explaining this once again. It also mentioned that 2011-2015 was the warmest five-year period on record.

As every year, the Austrian Avalanche Warning Services have made last winter's report available for free download (pdf) just in time for the start of the new season. It's worth a look, if only for the many sobering pictures and accident reports. The report contains guest contributions from avalanche wardens from Bavaria, Slovenia and South Tyrol. We have summarized a few key facts.

The fog hangs in the valley, the days are getting shorter, the nights cooler, the drinks warmer. Industry magazines report either enthusiastically or critically on the events that take place on every glacier every weekend. It's the most beautiful time of the year. It's fall. But especially for skiers who are more (i.e. exclusively) off-piste, the time before the real start of winter and the first heavy snowfalls harbors a considerable number of dangers that should be taken into account.

As explained by our colleague Orakel, a north-westerly current will bring a supply of snow to the NW congestion areas, which are already in a better position. In the south, winter is still a long time coming and there is a threat of spring on the horizon at the meteorological start of winter.

The WeatherBlog is currently receiving a lot of questions about El Niño, which is this year - or was it La Niña? What is all this again and what does it mean for the Alps? Haven't we covered this topic before? Yes, we have. To start with: there is still no clear, statistically definitive correlation between El Niño and the Alpine winter that anyone can agree on.