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Snow depth prediction game 2019/2020

After the prediction game is before the prediction game.

by Anselm Köhler • 11/24/2019
Pictorial explanation of our snowfall total. Please note, even if some weather stations display the amount of fresh snow, our own definition applies to the prediction game. Here the sum of the red bars would be an unrealistic 150cm in the prediction period...

Pictorial explanation of our snowfall total. Please note, even if the amount of fresh snow is sometimes displayed at weather stations, our own definition applies to the prediction game. Here, the sum of the red bars would be an unrealistic 150cm in the prediction period...

Tippspiel

Pictorial explanation of our snowfall total. Please note, even if the amount of fresh snow is sometimes displayed at weather stations, our own definition applies to the prediction game. Here, the sum of the red bars would be an unrealistic 150cm in the prediction period...

Tippspiel
And again an early onset of winter brings the betting game out of its winter escape in the south! This time it missed the first few PowderAlerts at 10-15 degrees Celsius in Finale Ligure on the rocks. But yes, you can't deny it: It's winter and no longer fall. It's the beginning of the season of skiing, powder, PowderAlert and snow depth prediction game!

After the prediction game is before the prediction game!

The winners of last season's prediction game are:

1st place: maxfree with a deviation of 6.1% wins a Scott airbag

2nd place: chevchelios with a deviation of 7.4% wins a Scott helmet

3rd place: magic spirit with a deviation of 11.1% wins a pair of Scott poles

Congratulations and have fun with your winnings!!!! (If you want to see the complete results table, please contact us at anselm@powderguide.com)

Snowy heights tip game: What's it about?

Every time a "significant" storm brings a decent amount of fresh snow to the Alps, it's well known that Ullr and his oracle give an estimate of the expected new snow totals as PowderAlert. In a PA, not only the amount but also a rough core zone is mentioned. The prediction game is held at a measuring station in the core zone: you predict the amount of fresh snow and then compare who was closest to the actual amount. For each PA, the measuring station, the time period for the prediction, the deadline for submitting a prediction and the initial snow depth are stated. The winner of the betting game is whoever bets the best over the season, of course...

How much snow is the new snow total

The new snow total, i.e. the number in centimetres, is defined as the maximum snow depth minus the initial snow depth - the picture illustrates the whole thing graphically. In this example, the forecast period is 48 hours with an initial snow depth of 75 cm. During these two days it most probably snowed most of the time. In the last few hours it snowed less or not at all, so that the snow cover settled and compacted. The maximum snow depth was 128cm, and this results in a new snow total of 128-75=53cm.

Quota as a measure of deviation

The deviation between the predicted (HN_t) and measured new snow total (HN_m) is defined as the quota Q:

Q = | HN_t - HN_m | / HN_m ,

i.e. the amount of the difference between the prediction and the measurement, normalized to the measurement. This results in the limit values Q = 0 for guessed to the nearest centimeter, Q = 1 for not guessed at all (HN_t = 0), and Q > 1 for completely wrong ... For the deviation percentages, the odds are multiplied by 100.

And how do I win now?

The winner of the day is the one with the lowest odds for the respective tip.

The overall winner at the end of the season is the one with the best five odds from each tip. This means that only the average of the five best daily odds counts for the final result:

In plain language, this means that you don't have to play every tip and can also join the betting game later in the year, because only five count anyway. As this winter is going to be awesome, there will be more than 15 PowderAlerts and prediction games!

"The deepest hole": 7.85 m of snow on the Dachstein glacier in spring 2019.

Andi Gschwentner
Hallstatt Glacier

"The deepest hole": 7.85 m of snow on the Dachstein glacier in spring 2019.

Andi Gschwentner
Hallstatt Glacier

We asked: The winning strategies

maxfree (1st place): "I'm delighted to be one of the lucky three who won the prediction game again. Happy because I got a great prize, but also because in the end it's always a bit of luck to land a good tip. Of course, it helps not to place your tip too early and to observe the weather around the betting game location as closely as possible. For me, the first step is always to read the oracle's wise words carefully. This provides a good basis of knowledge and, above all, is fun. Only then do I click through the fun-free pages on the web from time to time, always looking for the best information.

Many thanks to Anselm, Orakel and the whole PG team for the cool idea with the prediction game!"

chevchelios (2nd place): "Depending on the prediction period and station, I try to submit my prediction relatively late, especially if a lot of fresh snow is expected to fall before the prediction period ends and the station provides current data. In these cases, you can usually see a bit of a tendency as to where it might go. Otherwise, I usually look at various weather sites to see what precipitation is forecast for the tip region. Of course, it's also worth studying the PowderAlert from the oracle itself. And tipping on personal lucky numbers/endings seems to work quite well too!

How do I play along?

To play along, all you have to do is:

1) read the PowderAlerts regularly so as not to miss a tip

2) follow the link to the forum there

3) log in to the forum

4) submit a tip, i.e. attach your tipped amount of fresh snow to the bottom of the prediction game post.

Every tip "wins"!

For all tips, there is always a prize for the winner of the day - or rather for the PowderAlert winner. What this prize is in particular will not be revealed in advance, but it is usually the well-known, popular "little things" from the PowderGuide product range.

The main prizes have not yet been determined, but be sure that there will be similar great prizes as last year, for example airbag backpacks and other safety equipment.

Ullr is keeping its fingers crossed!

Pictorial explanation of our snowfall total. Please note, even if some weather stations display the amount of fresh snow, our own definition applies to the prediction game. Here the sum of the red bars would be an unrealistic 150cm in the prediction period...

Pictorial explanation of our snowfall total. Please note, even if the amount of fresh snow is sometimes displayed at weather stations, our own definition applies to the prediction game. Here, the sum of the red bars would be an unrealistic 150cm in the prediction period...

Tippspiel

Pictorial explanation of our snowfall total. Please note, even if the amount of fresh snow is sometimes displayed at weather stations, our own definition applies to the prediction game. Here, the sum of the red bars would be an unrealistic 150cm in the prediction period...

Tippspiel

ℹ️PowderGuide.com is nonprofit-making, so we are glad about any support. If you like to improve our DeepL translation backend, feel free to write an email to the editors with your suggestions for better understandings. Thanks a lot in advance!

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