Snow depth prediction game 2018/2019 and results 17/18

And the winners were ...

1st place: elfrido with 1.2% deviation

2nd place: maxfree with 4.7% deviation

3rd place: chevchelios 8.4% deviation

Congratulations from the PowderGuide side! We wish you as good a tipping season as last year and lots of fun with your new equipment! Many thanks also to the sponsor Mammut for the prizes for the winners of the 2017/18 betting game.

Elfrido will be out and about with an airbag backpack next season. Maxfree will not only be found excellently, but will also be able to search for his colleagues with his new avalanche transceiver. And chevchelios will be equipped with an up-to-date shovel/probe set and will "move" the snow in top time.

We asked the three winners about their betting strategy. Read for yourself how you can become Ullr's assistant in the coming season:

elfrido: "Especially in a winter like the last one, an exiled mountain freak & amateur meteorologist like me often has nothing better to do than to browse 10 times a day not only mentally in the direction of mountains & snow... great, if that still pays off. Now I can finally drop into every slope, muhaha! Nope. Joking aside... It was a funny feeling when the airbag-owning buddies always *had* to do the first line. Nope. Now let's really have some fun! I hope the winter that's coming (very soon and certainly fierce) is in no way inferior to the last one and I'll still need the contents of the backpack just as little as before ;) Of course, that doesn't mean that it won't always be there when it gets deeper. Oh well, a little tip for all typists this season: getting up early has already proven itself in other ways. But not always... Muchisimas Gracias!"

maxfree:"My motivation or my strategy? That's a good question. For me, the prediction game is always about looking forward to the upcoming dump and until then, I look at the PowderAlert and the maps. In the end, my tip is always a mixture of gut feeling and information from the web :) In addition, the prediction game always brings a little life into the fine, but unfortunately always somewhat quiet PowderGuide community."

chevchelios:"Depending on the prediction period and station, I try to submit my prediction relatively late, especially if a lot of fresh snow is expected to fall before the prediction period ends and the station provides current data. In these cases, you can usually see a bit of a trend as to where it might go. Otherwise, I usually look at various weather sites to see what precipitation is forecast for the tip region. Of course, it's also worth studying the PowderAlert from the oracle itself. And tipping on personal lucky numbers/endings also seems to work quite well ;)"

This compensation can be clearly seen when we look at the three winners in detail; namely their achieved odds depending on the measured amount of fresh snow from all tips. First of all, the odds appear to be quite chaotic, with everything from almost perfect (Q~0) to completely wrong (Q>1). The worst odds were achieved with small amounts of fresh snow - of course, 5cm off with 15cm of snowfall results in a 33% error. With large snowfalls, on the other hand, 5cm deviation is nothing.

What else does the plot say: Even the best betting game players like to miss the mark ... sometimes. And sometimes they get lucky!

And next winter?

The prediction game rules have generally proved their worth. This means that if there is a PowderAlert, a thread will be opened in the forum with the betting period and the meteo station. You then simply post your tip for the amount of fresh snow as a comment and you're in. If you want to know again exactly how the scoring etc. looks like, please have a look at the announcement of 2017/18. This year the prediction game is supported by Scott with worthwhile prizes:

1st prize a Scott airbag of your choice,

2nd prize a protective headgear (helmet) and

3rd prize a pair of Scott poles.

Furthermore, this year there will once again be the popular PowderGuide.com daily winner prizes for the best tip in each tip game. In order not to miss any PowderAlert, simply surf PowderGuide diligently, or: If needed, Ullr will open an anonymous email list and inform you about every new betting game. To sign up, simply send a "I want to bet on snow + " to Ullr's betting office. We'll hear from you when the snow falls and Ullr's wishes you a golden inch!