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Snow depth prediction game: The results

...and further details.

by Anselm Köhler 06/09/2017
Ullr on a surfing trip at the beach = winter over = prediction game over = final results and overall winner! firsttrack won with an average deviation of less than 5%, followed by chevchelios with a deviation of 7% and skimale1982 with 8%. Congratulations!

The main prize is a brand new Mammut Avalanche Airbag 3.0 (choice subject to availability)! Second place will be honored with a Mammut Pulse Barryvox LVS. And third place on the podium will receive a Mammut avalanche shovel and probe set (subject to availability).

There were 19 tips and 30 participants. The set of rules has proved its worth so far, even if it has been somewhat concretized after the first tips regarding the definition of the amount of fresh snow. The "rules" can be viewed here.

From our side, the prediction game went really well! What do you think? Do you have any suggestions for improvement?

Small prediction game statistics

So that you can improve your chances of winning next year, here is a small summary and graphical statistics of the 2016/2017 results. In a nutshell: Those who bet often and accurately will be the best bettors at the end of the season and scoop the top prizes!

Details on each bet and the daily wins and final result odds can be found in the tables:

What was that about the odds again?

For each tip, we determine the quality of the tip with the so-called odds Q, and this is calculated from the tipped amount of new snow HNT and the measured amount of new snow HNM:

Quote Q = |HNT - HNM| / HNM

This results in the limit values Q = 0 for accurately tipped to the centimeter, Q = 1 for not tipped at all (HNT = 0), and Q > 1 for completely off. For the deviation percentages, the odds are multiplied by one hundred. The final result odds are the average of the best five odds: SUM(QBEST-5) / 5. The daily winner odds are the smallest odds from that tip.

Odds histogram

The blue bars show all individual odds. You can see an even distribution with an accumulation at 30% forecast deviation. Overlaid by an astonishing number of very good fresh snow tips with a small deviation of less than 10%. Not shown are 369 tips with a deviation of over 95% or no tip submitted (100% deviation). This means that with 19 tips and 30 participants, there was only an average of around 30% participation, and in other words, there was a 10% probability of winning the day...

The red bars show the daily winner rates. There is a clear accumulation of daily winner odds with an accuracy of less than 5% deviation. With a bit of luck, however, you could also win the day with a deviation of up to 40%. A few details can be found in the next chart.

The yellow bars are the best 5 result odds: The final result as the average of the best-5 odds is distributed quite evenly across all deviations. Around half of all final results are less than 25%.

New snow measurement

This graph shows the dependence of the daily winner odds on the size of the new snow measurement from the respective tips, and suggests no correlation. For example, one of the best daily winner odds was achieved with tip #2 with over 1.3m of fresh snow. Also noticeable is the accumulation of larger deviations in the daily winner odds (~20%) with small amounts of fresh snow, where a few centimeters make up many percentages.

Participation in the tips

Here you can see the percentage participation of all 30 tipsters and their final result. The blue vertical line separates between fewer and more than five participating picks (~23%). It is clear that with less than five participating picks, the final result is strongly influenced negatively by a 1 odds. If you participate in more than 70% of the tips, you have the best chance of winning overall, but you also have a good chance of winning with fewer but qualitatively accurate tips.

Photo gallery

This article has been automatically translated by DeepL with subsequent editing. If you notice any spelling or grammatical errors or if the translation has lost its meaning, please write an e-mail to the editors.

Show original (German)

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