PowderAlert 3 2023/24 | High winter during early winter!

This is because Ullr is sending us more snow, but also significantly higher temperatures in the meantime during the snowfall, so that there will probably still be a lot more snow at the top, but not much will happen or even disappear at medium altitudes. From the tree line upwards, we should then have more snow than we've had for ages. Some stations in Switzerland already have record values for the time of year, even with 25-30 years of measurements, e.g. in Wallis (Orzival) or here on the eastern Alpennordhang (Chüebodensee) of Switzerland.

So things are (almost) looking great for the weekend.

Alert period and areas

There are alerts in the north and west from the Maritime Alps to the Arlberg, although the rest of Austria is also at the alert limit. However, the core extends from the Lower Valais to France.

In the south, there are alerts from the Adamello and Upper Engadine to Slovenia.

The alert runs from Wednesday evening until Saturday morning.

Wind

It's going to be rough everywhere with solid storms. It will calm down in the north by tomorrow evening, while it will be extremely uncomfortable in the south-east until Saturday. Because of this and the fact that the low pressure system is moving across the Alps, it will reach as far as the main ridge. There will therefore be dangerous accumulations of drifting snow, which will then be covered up in the north!

Snow line

A real rollercoaster ride. In the north-west, the snow line in the foothills of the Alps is sure to rise to 1800 or 2000 metres on Thursday, before dropping back down to Lake Geneva on Friday. In France, the whole thing may go up another 200-300m, while in north-east Switzerland/Arlberg it will stay snowy from 1300-1700m, while the snow line in eastern Austria will be 1100-1500m.

That was the foothills of the Alps. In the inner Alps, the snow line in Valais or the Hautes Alpes can also remain significantly lower, as the warm air is quite short and the cold air is viscous. In Switzerland, it may snow for a long time in the Rohne Valley. The snow line will also remain significantly lower in northern Graubünden.

It's easier in the south. In the west, it should remain snowy from 1700-2000 and later snow a little deeper, while in the border triangle it rains up to almost 2500m and below that there is hardly any base accumulation.

The quantities

From the Arlberg to the Bernese Oberland there will be 40-60cm with a pile-up and changes in the track, even 70cm or a little more, as the low is still not completely cleared up.

From the Lower Valais to France, 70-100cm can be expected, although I wouldn't rule out 110cm here and there in waterlogged areas. In France, especially in the Isere and the surrounding area, 120 or even 130cm can also occur in water holes.

In the south it's 40-60cm, in the Upper Engadine / Adamello it's more like 60-90cm and in the eastern core of the border triangle 100-150cm or even up to over 2m, but only at the very top starting at 2500m, so we'll probably organise the prediction game in France.

But the amounts only come when the low hits. The low is still unclear and the south-east is notoriously volatile in terms of precipitation anyway, even if the models are in agreement.

Where should I go?

I would look for something in the inner Alps with trees in the north-west core up to and including Saturday, as we already have a base there and it should stay powdery. On Saturday possibly with options upwards, as it might clear up in the west in the afternoon. Sunday it'll clear up everywhere and you can see how dangerous it is at the top. In the south, the Upper Engadine is probably the only option, as the south-east will get rain for a long time and the base is rather poor compared to the other areas.

Medium term

From Monday, a cold and probably drier week of touring in wintry conditions. Praise be to Ullr. 23/24, it can go on like this.

Prediction game #3: Core zone station "Aigleton (2240m)"

The snow depth prediction game no. 3 takes place at the station "Aigleton (2240m)" from Wednesday, 29th Nov 15:00 to 2nd Dec 10:00. The initial snow depth at the station "Aigleton (2240m)" is 101cm (29 Nov 15:00). The station is in the Massif Belledonne on the overview in the centre-bottom.

Write your fresh snow tip as a comment below by Thursday, 30 November at 20:00!

Reminder: Tip game rules, Tipping game reminder by email.

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