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PowderAlert 7 2017/18 | südstau

From Zero to Hero

by Lars Oelmann 12/09/2017
As announced, the alerts continue seamlessly. It has started to snow in the west with the warm front and this will spread to the south. Ullr doesn't do things by halves, because the whole thing will be enormous and produce a massive blanket of snow in the south from a standing start. This will probably be the heaviest dump of the winter so far, but it will be warm and accompanied by foehn storms in the north. However, the amounts will be in the newspaper reporting range. #snowpocalyspenow!

Alert period

Until Tuesday evening, a few hours less in the northwest and a few hours longer in the southeast.

Alert areas

The entire western and southern Alps from the western Lower Valais via France with the Maritime Alps and from Ticino to Slovenia. In other words, everything caught by the southwest sow. There's less to nothing in Monte Rosa and the Turin Alps, as they lie in the lee.

The cores are probably HautesAlpes / Maritime Alps, Upper Engadine/Adamello and Slovenia/Eastern Italy, Carinthia.

Wind

Biggest dump so far and it goes hand in hand with the strongest wind event on the peaks to date. In the south it will be "a bit drafty" at the top with a full storm and in the north there will probably be a foehn storm that will warm up and blow away our beautiful old snow.

The only "advantage" is that there will probably be loose snow up to the main ridge and the storm will push the precipitation from the south everywhere, possibly even just behind the main ridge.

Snow line

Now it's getting extremely tricky, because it's extremely difficult to predict. First it will be very low in the west this morning, then it will rise rapidly in the northwest and will even be between 1800 and 2200m tomorrow, depending on the foehn. In the inner Alps, however, it can look quite different in the Rhone Valley and on the border between Lower Valais and France, for example, with intense precipitation and snow up to 1000m or lower.

In the southwest in the congestion of the French Hautes Alpes southwest of the Ecrins and the Maritime Alps, it will also go up, but will probably stop somewhere at 1400-1800m, depending on how protected you are in the inner Alps. I don't know whether there are also places where it will stay lower.

It will be exciting in the south, because large parts of the precipitation in Ticino will also fall as snow below 1000m and the snow line will probably not rise any higher until Tuesday. Further east, the whole thing will gradually rise, in the Dolomites the limit is between 1400 and 1800m and in Slovenia it will probably also rain up to 1800-2000m. Will there be hidden valleys somewhere along the way where it stays lower? Who knows.

If I'm off the mark here, that's to be expected.

From Tuesday, the snow line will drop again as colder air flows in from the north. The full alert amounts will only come at the very top.

The amounts

It's going to be violent, young Ullrwan. The oracle's crystal ball is pretty freaky. However, the following amounts are totals without settlement. The increase in snow cover will probably be around 60-75% of the new snow totals with such heavy amounts, but not necessarily if there is significantly more accumulation.

Widespread snowfall of 70-110 cm from the lower Valais via France to Slovenia.

In the core in the southwest, 120-150 cm is likely in the Maritime Alps and especially in the Ecrins reservoir, according to models, and 160-180 cm would also be possible in isolated cases. However, there may be some downward surprises here, as the models tend to overestimate the Maritime Alps/Hautes Alpes. In the Upper Engadine - Adamello core it will probably be 100-130cm and we may see 150cm. I also see upward surprise potential here.

It's getting pretty crazy in the southeast in the border triangle, where all models are simulating 150-200cm of snow above 1800-2000m. I would also consider 3m possible in the Julian Alps in a stagnant situation. The models like to exaggerate in this area and it can also be significantly less, but I wouldn't rule out surprises at the top (!!).

Where should I go?

Ok, that's going to be difficult. I don't know if it will stay good in the trees anywhere in the northwest. After that, you shouldn't overdo anything on Wednesday because of the massive accumulations of drift snow above the tree line.

There are high trees in the southwest, where you can have fun above 1800m until Tuesday. If there is enough by Monday. Remember: there was hardly any base here.

In the south, I would go into the trees in Ticino or Upper Engadine/Adamello, as cold air still remains here and there is still a lot coming. The same applies here: wait until there is enough, because there was almost no base.

On Wednesday, you can carefully look above the tree line to see what the hurricane has done there.

In the southeast, I'm at a loss. Because if there's no hidden valley, there won't be any trees.

Mid-term

It's turning north again and it'll stay cold and damp until at least next weekend. This means that there will be a few flakes here and there after the Föhn, but nothing alarming in the crystal ball so far. We'll have to see whether there's another alert for the northwest on Thursday/Friday.

After that, everything is uncertain, but you should sacrifice at the Ullrschrein, because there may be a massive shift of cold air towards eastern Canada and Greenland, which wouldn't be good for winter in the Alps.

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This article has been automatically translated by DeepL with subsequent editing. If you notice any spelling or grammatical errors or if the translation has lost its meaning, please write an e-mail to the editors.

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