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PowderAlert No. 9 2015 | Second helpings in the south

When it's on, it's on

by Lars Oelmann 01/20/2015
True to the motto "when it's on, it's on", Ullr is reflecting on its performance last week and sending supplies south just in time for the weekend. The whole thing starts today and will be finished on Friday morning. It won't be a proper dump but a fun replenishment on the soft base.

Where is it snowing? It will probably only reach alarming amounts of 30 cm or more from Monte Rosa to Adamello or just east of it. Whether the zone will also make it as far as the Ortler area or the Dolomites is doubtful.

The wind will be relatively relaxed, apart from a brief sign of life tonight, so that it may be a case of quite cold temperatures and a snow line below 800 to 1000 m: blowers on a soft base, with "normal" avalanche danger without weak layers anywhere in the snowpack. That means: more fun in Ullr's frozen kingdom.

Nevertheless, even with a favorable build-up of snowpack in the south and less wind: always read bulletins before setting off.

The amounts: Everywhere in the south from the Lake Alps to Slovenia there will be some flakes here and there, but only from Monte Rosa to the Adamello area will there be more than powder cosmetics. As the whole thing is not pushed in so hard, the volumes only apply to the immediate reservoir, other areas such as the Upper Engadine are more likely to get the main ridge volumes.

In essence: It will be 30 to 50 cm here, but I don't think it will go much beyond that, as the congestion is not particularly pronounced. However, the models are notoriously uncertain with something like this from the Gulf of Genoa, so anything beyond that cannot be calculated as an ullr bonus. Uncertainty factor possibly plus 10 to 20 cm in the backwater X. Adjacent to the east and west and in the direction of the main ridge it will be 20 to 30 cm, otherwise it's more likely to be cosmetic between 10 and 20 cm.

What to do? If you can, you should spend Friday in the ski resort of your southern dreams, as it will tear open on Friday morning. And then you can either look for leftovers or go touring at the weekend, although the main ridge may get some snow from the north, so you might not have perfect sunny weather there. We'll post here in due course whether this will also cause a minor alarm in the north.

In the medium term, Ullr has packed the big guns for the north in the models, but will he also fire them over the northern Alps? More on that next week. So keep your fingers crossed and spruce up the shrine of our favorite Nordic ski god!

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