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PowderAlerts

Snow depth prediction game 2017/2018

It's time to type again!

by Anselm Köhler 11/24/2017
I've just been on a summer getaway in Croatia and was shocked to discover that it's already snowing there too. So, there's no denying it: it's winter and the season of skiing, powder, PowderAlert and snow depth prediction games has begun!

Why, why, why: What's it all about?

Whenever a "significant" storm brings a good amount of fresh snow to the Alps, Ullr and its oracle are known to give an estimate of the expected amount of fresh snow as a PowderAlert. In a PA, not only the amount but also a rough core zone is mentioned. The prediction game is held at a measuring station in the core zone, namely to see how much fresh snow has actually fallen or was predicted by you. For each PA, the measuring station, the period over which the prediction is made, the deadline for submitting a prediction and the initial snow depth are stated.

Snowfall total

The figure in question is the snowfall total in centimetres. In the PG Prediction Game, the new snow total is defined as the maximum snow depth minus the initial snow depth - the image illustrates this graphically. In the example shown, the prediction period is 48 hours with an initial snow depth of 75 cm. During these two days it most probably snowed most of the time. In the last few hours it snowed less or not at all, so that the snow cover settled and compacted. The maximum snow depth was 128cm. This results in the following new snow total: 128-75=53cm.

Quota

The quota Q is defined as the deviation between the tipped (HN_t) and measured new snow sum (HN_m):

Q = | HN_t - HN_m | / HN_m

The quota is therefore the amount of the difference between the tip and the measurement, normalized to the measurement. This results in the limit values Q = 0 for guessed to the nearest centimeter, Q = 1 for not guessed at all (HN_t = 0), and Q > 1 for completely wrong... For the deviation percentages, the odds are multiplied by one hundred. The daily winner odds are the smallest odds of the respective tip.

At the end of the season there is of course an overall winner. For this, we only take the best five odds of each. The final result odds are the average of these best five odds.

In plain language, this means that you don't have to play every tip and can also join the prediction game later in the year. As this winter is going to be awesome, there will be more than 15 PowderAlerts or prediction games.

How do I play along

To play along, all you have to do is:

1) read the PowderAlert regularly so as not to miss a tip

2) follow the link to the forum there

3) have or create a forum account

4) submit a tip, i.e. bet on the amount of new snow.

4) submit a tip, i.e. guess the new snow total.

Every tip "wins"!

All tips always include a prize for the winner of the day, or rather for the PowderAlert winner. As last year, the prizes for the PowderAlert winners come from the PowderGuide product range.

The main prizes are once again provided by our partner company Mammut:

1st prize: Mammut airbag backpack

2nd prize: Mammut LVS

3rd prize: Mammut shovel/probe set.

Ullr is keeping its fingers crossed!

Here's the first prediction game of the season!

This article has been automatically translated by DeepL with subsequent editing. If you notice any spelling or grammatical errors or if the translation has lost its meaning, please write an e-mail to the editors.

Show original (German)

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