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Weather Blog 5 2024/25 | Ni fu ni fa

Little prospect of significant snowfall

by Sebastian Müller 12/10/2024
In many places, the Alps are a winter wonderland. Nevertheless, we have a mixed assessment of the start of the season. There has been some nice precipitation, but none of it has been heavy. The snow conditions across the Alps are neither bad nor good for mid-December. The prospects for new snow are similar. I therefore describe the situation with the beautiful Spanish proverb: ni fu ni fa.

Winter start and snow conditions

On Sunday, an extensive frontal system moved across the Alps from west to east. It drove away the excellent sunny climbing weather here on the southern side of the Alps and brought a good twenty centimetres to the mountains around Trento. Unfortunately, that's still not enough for off-piste skiing. Now it's mostly sunshine again with light cloud cover. It should be noted that Youtuber Marco Bassot teased me in the last VdW: his shots on the Marmolada were from the start of the season last year. There really isn't much going on here on the south side of the Alps. From Tyrol, conditions reporters JacobAnselm and Powsearcher are reporting the best powder snow. However, without a base, the white splendour is a deceptive affair there too. Ground contact is to be expected wherever there has been no snow so far, and stone skis are still advisable at the moment. In Switzerland, the SLF is even anticipating a developing old snow problem due to the thin snow cover. Winter has reached a critical phase and the snow cover is longing to grow. The situation can currently be categorised as ni fu ni fa.

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Weather outlook

The storm system from the weekend is still wafting weakly over Europe and bringing continental, i.e. cool but dry, air from Eastern Europe to the Alps. The low pressure wedge is already being taken over by the Azores High from the north, but is still stretching and resisting in a truly unusual way and will finally dissipate over the course of the week. After a brief disturbance at the weekend, with little precipitation, the westerly weather will be weak in terms of gradient. A storm system with precipitation only appears again around 19 December, but this is quite a deep look into the crystal ball.

Significant weather

When is weather significant? The DWD automatically identifies concise weather phenomena from its weather model forecasts and encodes them. Key figures that can be determined from the available model variables and their meaning are as follows:

  • ww = 45 fog

  • ww = 48 fog with frost

  • ww = 51 light drizzle

  • ww = 53 moderate drizzle

  • ww = 55 heavy drizzle

  • ww = 56 light freezing drizzle

  • ww = 57 moderate or heavy freezing drizzle

  • ww = 61 light rain

  • ww = 63 moderate rain

  • ww = 65 heavy rain

  • ww = 66 light freezing rain

  • ww = 67 moderate or heavy freezing rain

  • ww = 71 light snowfall

  • ww = 73 moderate snowfall

  • ww = 75 heavy snowfall

  • ww = 77 snow drizzle

  • ww = 80 light rain shower

  • ww = 81 moderate or heavy rain shower

  • ww = 82 very heavy rain shower

  • ww = 85 light snow shower

  • ww = 86 moderate or heavy snow shower

  • ww = 95 light or moderate thunderstorm without sleet or hail

  • ww = 96 heavy thunderstorm without sleet or hail or thunderstorm with sleet or hail

  • ww = 95 light or moderate thunderstorm without sleet or hail. Thunderstorm with sleet or hail

  • ww = 99 severe thunderstorm with sleet or hail

  • ww = 00 cloudless

  • ww = 01 partly cloudy

  • ww = 02 cloudy

  • ww = 03 very cloudy to overcast

The DWD is currently warning of freezing drizzle and a risk of slippery conditions. This is not the significant weather we want. I ask everyone to go to the ULLR sacrificial altars and sacrifice. Soon, Mrs Holle will again delight us with plenty of significant weather w = 75.

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