WeatherBlog 10 2016/17 | Arctic outbreak

In any case, the high is gone for now. The cold front was followed by calm weather yesterday, Tuesday, but winter was already waiting in the wings: a small, drained low in the Atlantic supports the high off the west coast of Europe, directing warm air northwards. A storm depression with a very deep core lies over the Baltic Sea. A strong, stormy northerly current develops between the Atlantic high and the low. With the arrival of a frontal system embedded in the Baltic Sea low, precipitation sets in on the northern side of the Alps.

The Baltic Sea low taps into Arctic cold and shovels it into Central Europe. On Thursday, the axis of the Atlantic high will tilt slightly to the east and the flow in the eastern Alps will take on an easterly component, pushing in more cold air. In any case, the temperatures from Thursday to Saturday will be colder than they have been for a long time. This is called an Arctic Outbreak - the breakout from the Arctic prison could join forces with the masked cold front and form a wintry gang.

Medium-term

There are still a few uncertainties as to exactly what will happen from the weekend onwards. From today's perspective, it will be relatively sunny on Friday, while Saturday will be cloudy in the north. At present, it looks as if a north-westerly situation will establish itself in the near future. The Atlantic high will be virtually overrun by a low with a core east of Greenland and the flow will become more zonal. This would make it milder again with the influx of Atlantic air masses, but it would remain wet with further snowfall in the north and west into next week.

For the southern Alps, things are still not looking particularly good in terms of snow. The Balkan countries, Greece, parts of southern Italy and western Turkey, on the other hand, are likely to receive some precipitation again thanks to a Balkan low. The Italian Adriatic coast may also see some sea-effect snow (= the big version of the lake effect).

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