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WeatherBlog 12 2021/22 | Battle of the giants

Azores high against winter dreams

by Lea Hartl 01/26/2022
Sun in the west, cold and snow in the east - this is roughly how the current and future weather situation in Europe can be summarized. At the moment, this means snow chaos in Athens and drought in the Western Alps, among other things. The dividing line between cool "summer" and picture-book winter will move closer to us again over the next few days and, as is so often the case, there is cause for cautious hope. But beware: those who hope may be disappointed!

Current situation and outlook

High Erich has us firmly in his grip. Since the last PowderAlert in the east, and for several weeks in the west, the sun has been shining almost uninterrupted. There is thick fog in the lowlands, but above it is again (or still) relatively mild and bright blue. Erich is a kind of side arm of the more or less stationary Azores High, which naturally tends to lie over the Azores, but also repeatedly stretches towards Europe.

The polar vortex currently has its main center between Greenland and northeastern Canada. There is repeated development of low pressure from eastern Canada over the east coast of the USA, which leads to warmer air being transported from south to north over the Atlantic, which in turn strengthens the Azores High. The cold air over Scandinavia and north-western Siberia is fighting against high pressure on the other side of the world in the Kazakhstan/SW Russia region. Between the high pressure in the eastern Atlantic and Central Europe and the high pressure in Central Asia, there are repeated outbreaks of cold air to the south - most recently during the last snowfall event in the eastern Eastern Alps.

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The basic hope for all those who want snow and cold will continue to be based on this pattern in the near future: Will the frontal zone manage to push the high pressure out of the way long enough and far enough to allow winter to reach the Alpine region? If so, will this also be the case in the west, or only in the east again?

At the moment, it looks like Friday will be a graze in the north/northeast. Already tomorrow, Thursday, clouds will gather from the north and the wind from the N/NW will become noticeably stronger. Friday will be widely cloudy in the north with rather unproductive precipitation. In the south, it will remain clearer and probably dry with north föhn winds. The weekend will also be mixed, with the same north-south distribution of mixed weather. Saturday is likely to be the better day in terms of fewer clouds and better visibility. A warm front with further non-snowfall in the north is on the cards for Sunday. Most of it will come together in the far east. It will be a little warmer and the snow line will rise to medium heights. For the south, the snow forecast looks persistently poor.

Glass sphere

The coming week will be exciting. There are signs of a rather striking northerly situation arising from the large-scale situation described above. In the current maps, it looks very stormy and much colder than recently, potentially with a lot of fresh snow in the north. However, the latter in particular is still uncertain in terms of actual amounts and timing of arrival (see problem of hope vs. potential for disappointment). If necessary, the oracle will get in touch.

Finally, a quick look at the snow depth at our example station on the Pitztal Glacier: below average, but not as much as the current, generally very poor snow situation in the terrain would suggest. The station is high enough that it snowed even during the very warm precipitation, while it rained and thawed further down...

And finally, a link to photos of Athens and Istanbul in thick snow, because you rarely see that.

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