Wetterblog 13 2023/24 | Winter-Comeback und AMOC-Collaps

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Weather outlook

The Azores High is sitting dutifully in the Atlantic and a deep trough with a centre over the North Sea is establishing itself for the next few days. In this configuration, cold, moist air will first flow towards the Mediterranean and then from the south towards the Alps. I'll leave it to my colleague Oracle to estimate the amount of fresh snow, because it's bound to cause an alert! I'll just say in advance that the snow line will certainly drop to 1000 metres and, although it's a southerly accumulation, considerable amounts of fresh snow can also be expected in inner-Alpine areas. We are hoping for a sustainable winter comeback and are getting our skis out of the corner again!

AMOC collapse

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) spans the entire Atlantic and transports warm water from the southern hemisphere to Europe in the Gulf Stream, among other things. Without its existence, Europe would be around 10 degrees Celsius cooler and it has long been recognised that the AMOC is a tipping element in the climate system. The collapse of the AMOC has now been simulated for the first time in a physical model with a worthy representation of ocean circulation and published under the title Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course. Such works immediately bring to mind "The Day After Tomorrow" and thus generate enormous media interest. Perhaps some people romanticise doomsday scenarios or find a cold Europe quite attractive for skiing after all. How the snow conditions and powder activity would behave in the Alps can only be surmised. The Alpine climate would certainly become colder, but there would probably also be much less precipitation. Germany's leading climate researcher Stefan Rahmstorf also acknowledges the study in a blog post. Ultimately, this work does not predict the time of collapse, but it does show that a collapse is to be expected under a given freshwater inflow, as would be the case if the Greenland ice sheet melted.