The WeatherBlog is tired of skiing, so this week just a little bit of framing for the PowderAlert...
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Current situation
The already well-known low pressure system to the west of the British Isles is constantly being replenished. The wedge near Greenland, which recently caused a strong south-westerly component in the current, has disappeared. This clears the way for the westerly flow, which is responsible for the westerly congestion discussed by our colleague Orakel. It also makes for "interesting" weather in England, where widespread flooding is causing massive problems and the storm is throwing trees onto power lines. Here are pictures of stoic English people who are happy that their canoe fits through the gate of their accurate garden fence.
In terms of snow, the situation remains largely unchanged, with little to nothing in the north and a lot to very much in the south. Snow depths have been measured by an observer in Obertilliach (East Tyrol) for 50 years: During the entire series of measurements, there has never been as much snow in February as at the moment and not much was missing to reach the absolute maximum.
In 2014, Obertilliach already received as much precipitation as it does on average in around half a year.
According to ZAMG, the snow loads on the roofs in this area are between 200 and 500 kilograms per square meter. This means that the structural standard values have not yet been exceeded.
The outlook
The next few days have already been discussed with our esteemed colleague. So let's turn our attention to the crystal ball: the current battle between the American GFS model and the European ECMWF is interesting. Once again, we are stealing maps in which motivated users of the Skywarn.at forum have drawn something: Both maps show the 500hPa geopotential surface and ground pressure for Wednesday next week. The ECMWF (left) sees a wedge off the European Atlantic coast (red arrow, warm air to the north), which will produce a corrugation and allow cold air masses from the north to reach us (blue arrow, cold air to the south). This would be a situation with winter options for the north and possibly even the lowlands. The GFS sees the wedge in a weaker form a little further east, which would put us back in a southwesterly flow with familiar characteristics (red arrow, warm air to the top right). If nothing comes of the ECMWF's cautious ideas, it will be very difficult for the general weather situation to change to real winter weather (= mainly cold) during the rest of the meteorological winter, which ends on February 28. Fortunately, as we all know, the skiing winter is far from over.
