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WeatherBlog 15/2015 | Optimal skiing days and climate change

News from the academic ivory tower

by Lea Hartl 02/25/2015
The WeatherBlog has various other commitments in addition to its weekly activity here on PG, in the course of which it occasionally engages in literature research on various topics.

For example, I recently came across a scientific article in the journal Tourism Economics entitled The Christmas Easter Shift: simulating Alpine ski resorts' future development under climate change conditions using the parameter 'optimal ski day' (Berghammer and Schmude, 2014).

The research topic "what will happen to ski resorts if it gets warmer and warmer" is by no means new; there are countless studies on the subject. The so-called 100-day rule is often used as a rough criterion for the economic viability of a ski resort, according to which cost-neutral lift operation is possible if there is sufficient snow (30 cm of natural or artificial snow) for at least 100 days. If you have these 100 days in 7 out of 10 winters, you can survive as a ski resort in the long term.

The whole thing is of course more complicated in reality, small ski resorts with low running costs may already be in the black with fewer days, while others need longer to cover running costs because, for example, they have only recently invested in snowmaking equipment and this has not yet paid for itself.

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In any case, for this type of study, you usually look for a parameter whose future development you are considering, for example "days with enough snow" or "days cold enough for artificial snow production" and then use climate models to consider how the parameter could change. ("How many days with sufficient snow are there with a warming of X degrees at location Y?") The natural sciences usually leave it at that.

However, the paper mentioned above is not satisfied with such trivial things as the amount of snow or temperature, but defines and examines the "optimal ski day" (OSD) in order to make a statement not only about the quantity of possible future ski days, but also about their quality. An OSD is a sunny day without strong winds, with a perceived temperature between -5 and +5° C. All lifts are open and there is at least 30 cm of snow (natural or artificial) on the slopes. The surrounding area is also covered in snow, but it's all about the look, just a few centimetres are enough. An OSD also always falls on a weekend or a public holiday. The idea behind this is that a high number of OSDs can ensure that a ski resort is worthwhile even with fewer operating days, as significantly more visitors come on these days.

The study concludes that the number of OSDs per season will decrease in future, meaning that more money will have to be generated on fewer days. It is also assumed that OSDs will shift from the Christmas vacations towards Easter and therefore recommends other marketing strategies for Christmas tourism (keyword: fog hiking). In general, it is expected that the image of a region will change as a result of climate change. The Allgäu, for example, is an "alpine region" that tourists associate with "green grass and grazing cows". In the future, the landscape there will be characterized by agricultural monocultures, so one should be prepared for this in terms of marketing (fog hiking in a field of genetically modified maize?).

Another study entitled Winter Tourism, Climate Change, and Snowmaking in the Swiss Alps: Tourists' Attitudes and Regional Economic Impacts (Pütz et al 2011, Mountain Research and Development), found that people generally prefer to go on vacation in beautiful areas and don't like ugly ones. In addition, summer tourists tend to dislike artificial snow, while winter tourists find it quite good. (In 1990, winter tourists didn't like snow cannons either.) The study found that there is a significant, positive correlation between "engagement in skiing" and "positive attitude towards artificial snow". Who would have thought it? Anyone with a negative attitude towards artificial snow either doesn't ski or doesn't realize that they often ski on artificial snow anyway.

Weather outlook

The WeatherBlog is far too complicated for the average winter tourist and the answer to the question of whether it will be a perfect day for skiing in the near future is up to you.

On Friday, it should snow a little again in the north, although Colleague Oracle is unlikely to get in touch this time. Nevertheless, you could still have fun on Saturday if the sun shines and you choose the right spot. On Sunday and towards next week, it will be changeable again, with the westerly and north-westerly flow remaining.

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This article has been automatically translated by DeepL with subsequent editing. If you notice any spelling or grammatical errors or if the translation has lost its meaning, please write an e-mail to the editors.

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