Long-term
We may not always spend the same day as Bill Murray in the best meteorology documentary of all time, but we somehow seem to be stuck in the same large-scale pressure distribution. It is therefore all the more pleasing that, despite all the political upheaval in the USA, Groundhog Day was celebrated there again this year. As usual, forecasts for the next six weeks were made as part of the festive event.
Traditionally, Punxutavney Phill, a woodchuck from Pennsylvania, and various colleagues emerge from their burrows on February 2. When they see their shadows (because the sun is shining), another six weeks of winter follow. This custom was introduced by German immigrants in the middle of the 19th century. In their homeland, the rule was "If the badger suns itself during Candlemas week, it goes back to hole" for four weeks. In the New World, however, there were no badgers available. Fortunately, it soon turned out that the many woodchucks there are also prepared to make long-term forecasts, at least when they are coerced into doing so by older gentlemen in top hats.
This year, the woodchucks' predictions for the rest of the winter are more or less in balance. Punxutavney Phil, Holtsville Hal, Essex Ed, Dunkirk Dave, Buckeye Chuck and French Creek Freddie are expecting 6 more weeks of winter. Malverne and Milltown Mel, Staten Island Chuck, Stonewall Jackson V, Chattanooga Chuck, Chesapeake Chuck and others see the imminent arrival of spring. Floriemel, Carmela and Margarita, three South American coatis from New Jersey with an affinity for meteorology, are betting on winter.
A Broadway musical for Groundhog Day is also planned for the near future. We're already very excited.
Here's the forecast from Punxutavney Phill at Gobblers Knob:
