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WeatherBlog 15 2021/22 | Calm weather, turbulent world

Lots of sun, moderate temperatures

by Lea Hartl 03/02/2022
The Alpine region lies under a large-scale high-pressure bridge that stretches from the Azores to the Baltic Sea. With a generally flat pressure distribution, a low pressure system in south-eastern Europe is holding back and dampening temperatures. The calm, mostly sunny weather is expected to continue until the weekend.

Current situation and outlook

The weather is rather dull, so we'll keep it brief. High pressure will ensure plenty of sunshine more or less across the entire Alpine region. The cyclonic influence in the south-east will bring in relatively cool air from the NE, so that temperatures will be spring-like but not yet summer-like. Given the course of winter so far, this is not a matter of course! Towards the weekend, there are signs of more unsettled weather, especially in the south, as the low in the SE gains influence. However, this is not particularly exciting at the moment. At the beginning of the coming week, a cold air outbreak in the east with snow down to low altitudes is a possibility, but this is still very shaky.

What looks like quite nice touring weather in this country with often clear, cold nights is far less pleasant if you have to leave home in a hurry and wait at border fences to get in. In addition to the well-known, large aid organizations, there are also smaller, private initiatives that are currently transporting outdoor equipment in particular (sleeping bags, headlamps, tents, ...) relatively directly to the Ukrainian border region - in Austria, for example: "Aktion Bergsportler helfen der Ukraine".

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Current situation and outlook (version 2)

In addition to its primary purpose, the weather report is also known to lend itself to all kinds of metaphors, as well as being a mostly innocuous topic of conversation when topics are otherwise scarce. After all, "bright to cloudy" applies to the weather at least as often as to the rest of the world. At the moment, when the weather is bright and the world is cloudy, we are taking the WeatherBlog as an opportunity to take another look at the IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The much-cited IPCC reports, which are published approximately every 7 years, summarize the state of the climate and the consequences of the climate crisis on thousands of pages. The essentials are condensed into a few dozen pages for politicians and the public.

On Monday, a new condensed summary was published on "Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability", i.e. on the social and ecological effects of the climate crisis. In this area, there are basically three options for dealing with the changes, often summarized as: Mitigation, Adaptation, and Suffering. In other words: limiting warming, adapting to the new circumstances and suffering. The less you want from one option, the more you need from the other two.

The latest report was described by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres as an "atlas of human suffering" and a damning testimony to failed climate policy. That basically sums up the content. If you look, you can also find a few reasonably positive messages. On the one hand, it is not yet too late to curb global warming. However, the measures required are becoming increasingly urgent and drastic. On the other hand, a lot is happening in the field of climate change adaptation: change can be brought about on many different levels, from renaturation as flood protection to urban planning and the orientation of public health systems. Even with the best adaptation measures (of which we are a long way off), the current changes are too great and too rapid to prevent suffering completely or even partially through adaptation alone. Without limiting global warming, many adaptation measures will cease to be effective relatively quickly and there is no way around a (very!) rapid move away from fossil fuels.

The two-week marathon meeting to finalize the current summary took place virtually. 195 participating nations agreed on the wording. Anyone who has ever had to produce a group project with a thesis for school or university with a bunch of classmates or fellow students can probably imagine the level of collaboration and communication this requires.

The Ukrainian IPCC delegation left the meeting early on February 25 to get to safety. Delegation head Svitlana Krakovska reappeared for the closing speeches on Sunday and is quoted as saying :

"We will not surrender in Ukraine, and we hope the world will not surrender in building a climate resilient future."

"Human-induced climate change and the war on Ukraine have the same roots -- fossil fuels -- and our dependence on them."

Directly afterwards, the head of the Russian delegation and former IPCC lead author, Oleg Anisimov, spoke:

"First of all, let me thank Ukraine and present an apology on behalf of all Russians who were not able to prevent this conflict. All of those who know what is happening fail to find any justification for this attack against Ukraine."

(Sometimes even the weather report is lost for words.)

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