WeatherBlog 18 2021/22 | Boredom

Current situation and outlook

We could more or less repeat the paragraph on the current situation from last week or the week before last here. The blocking high continues to dominate the situation in western and central Europe. Due to the NE component of the flow, temperatures have been comparatively subdued in recent days. However, with a turn to the south-east to south, it is now getting warmer every day and windier in regions prone to south föhn. Overall, however, the weather will remain sunny for the time being. Towards the weekend, there is likely to be an increase in cumulus clouds during the course of the day, but no precipitation is expected.

The latest model runs indicate a possible outbreak of cold air with snow and frost down to low altitudes at the end of the month. On the one hand, this would be a welcome change, but on the other hand it would be bad for the vegetation, which is currently developing rapidly in spring-like weather. The now truly exorbitant precipitation deficit in many places would be alleviated somewhat in the north in this scenario, but would probably be far from compensated for. In the south in particular, the drought and the risk of forest fires are currently extreme. The Lake Carezza ski resort in South Tyrol recently experienced a symbolic fire. Pictures from a chairlift perspective with a view of skis and smoking grass can be found on social media.

Detail on the side: With low humidity and rather cool temperatures, you are more likely to get a "shock" if you touch objects or other people. The DWD dedicated a Topic of the Day to this fact a while ago. As the WeatherBlog has just had a wipe from its own desk chair, we would like to point this out. The DWD recommends: No synthetic clothing, increase the humidity in the room (for example: hang a wet towel over the radiator), touch grounded objects from time to time.

When uncertainties are discussed in the context of the public climate change debate, it is usually not or only marginally about unresolved research questions. It is much more often a kind of discussion about values, or about different risk assessments with the same information situation. What is worth protecting, what do we have to lose, how risk-averse are we, how much prevention paradox can we tolerate in which areas of society? The last Snow of Tomorrow column with the ÖAV's view on renewable energies in the Alps is an example of a discussion that is almost exclusively about different views or values and not/hardly about open scientific questions. Both the scientific issues and the others should of course be discussed. However, it is important to be clear about what you are discussing and only mix the different areas very carefully, if at all. The more vague the debates become, the more likely the public and politicians are to lose interest, which in turn does not help the cause (which in turn is also sometimes used as a tactic by climate change deniers).

And what about the snow?

Well, the SLF sums it up nicely: Stable crust on weak old snow. Here's the video to go with it, in which the latter rather than the former is emphasized.

This too is unlikely to change much in the near future. Where avalanches are currently taking place on old snow, the avalanche risk has disappeared afterwards, as there is simply no more snow - at least that is what can be observed in Tyrol. Where the crust is stable enough, you can look forward to firn. The only question that sometimes arises is how stable is stable enough?