WeatherBlog 2 2016/17 | Uncertain times

Cool October, or not?

Last October was mostly cooler in the Alpine region than the long-term average (1981-2010). That almost feels like a headline these days, although it shouldn't be unusual when you think about the mathematical nature of an average. So far this year, only May has been cooler than average. In Austria, the October deviation downwards was 0.4°C. The last time it was even further below average was August 2014, which was quite a while ago. With a sunshine deficit of 25% and relatively high precipitation, especially in the east, October was not only cool but also rather cloudy. Of course, things can look very different elsewhere. The USA, for example, recorded the third warmest October since measurements began and in the Arctic it was much warmer than you would expect there at this time of year, as mentioned in the last WeatherBlog.

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Global temperature deviations in October 2016, from satellite data. — Global temperature deviations in October 2016, from satellite data
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http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/

Paris Climate Agreement enters into force.

The Paris Climate Agreement officially came into force a few days ago. The condition for this was that at least 55 countries, which are responsible for at least 55% of global emissions, agree to the whole thing. According to this think tank, 97 nations, responsible for 69% of emissions, have now ratified the agreement. As a reminder, the agreement states that the aim is to ensure that temperatures do not rise by more than 1.5°C, or a maximum of 2°C, in relation to pre-industrial temperature levels.

How this is to be achieved is far less clear than the wording of the ambitious target. The individual countries define "intended nationally determined contributions" (INDC), in which they set themselves semi-voluntary targets. Here you can find interesting analyses that show whether the various INDCs would theoretically be sufficient to achieve the targets set in the agreement. Spoiler: mostly not. Ethiopia, Morocco, Bhutan, Costa Rica and Gambia are currently the only countries whose measures are sufficient according to the criteria of the analysis. The EU, the USA, China and others are in the not-so-great midfield. Russia, New Zealand, Australia, Canada, Chile and many others are rated "not sufficient".

On November 3, the latest "Emissions Gap Report" by the UN was published, which shows where the temperature rise is heading, taking into account the various emission reduction measures. The document can be downloaded here. If all INDCs are met, we are heading for a warming of 2.9 to 3.4°C by 2100. Achieving the 2°C target (let alone the 1.5°C target) would therefore require much more.

Development of CO2 emissions of various countries, in gigatons of CO2 per year.

UN Emissions Gap Report

Donald Trump already announced in May that he wants to withdraw from the Paris Agreement if he is elected: "We're going to cancel the Paris Climate Agreement and stop all payment of U.S. tax dollars to U.N. global warming programs." This stance was recently criticized by China, among others, where they usually tend to hold back on commenting on other countries election campaigns. China's energy policy has changed significantly in recent times, moving away from coal and towards investment in renewable energies. Of course, President Trump cannot completely abolish the international agreement, but if it had not yet fully entered into force, he could have withdrawn the USA's consent relatively easily. This is no longer possible without further ado and would take several years. There is speculation that concerns about his possible actions have helped the rest of the world involved to get their act together quickly before the US election. It usually takes much longer for UN agreements to come into full force after the initial decisions. The delegates at the climate conference in Marrakesh are currently considering how this could all continue.

President Trump has just delivered his victory speech (Transkipt). Let's take a sentence fragment out of context: "It is time for us to come together as one united people."

We have nothing to add to this with regard to the global climate.